CryptoQuant CEO Signals Imminent Crypto Market Rally but Warns Against Going All-in

Key Takeaways

• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju advises against going all-in on Bitcoin.
• Ju says investors should be cautious and consider selling gradually.
• Historical data indicates that BTC’s price stabilizes further and price volatility declines with every halving cycle.

In the wake of Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent all-time high on Nov. 6, which coincided with the U.S. presidential election, many investors are bracing for a potential bull run in the crypto market.

However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has sounded a note of caution, urging traders to temper their enthusiasm and not to go all-in.

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Bitcoin Poised for Bullish Rally, but How Much?

Ju’s warning is rooted in historical data that suggests Bitcoin’s price momentum may not be as robust as it was during previous cycles.

The CEO shared an analysis of BTC’s UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age bands, highlighting the pain endurance of BTC traders through bear markets.

The data indicates that new investors often hold onto their Bitcoin through difficult times, enduring significant losses.

However, crypto investors tend to sell once the pressure eases and the BTC price starts to rise again.

According to the data, BTC changes hands roughly every two years when the pain subsides.

This two-year time frame seems to be nearing its end for the previous cycle, suggesting that BTC could experience a bullish rally in the coming months.

However, Ju advised the crypto community to temper their enthusiasm about the potential rally.

Instead of going all-in, he recommended selling gradually.

BTC Price History Calls for Caution

After each halving, Bitcoin’s price gradually increases in the run-up to the event, nearing its previous cycle highs.

The price then consolidates for nearly six months after the halving before an aggressive surge in the following year.

For instance, after the 2017 all-time high of nearly 17,000, the BTC price went through a bear market, followed by a recovery that started toward the end of 2020 after the halving in May.

The price surged over 400%, reaching approximately 64,000. However, the market entered a bearish phase again in the second half of 2022, with BTC’s price losing 70% of its value from ATH.

The previous cycle indicated a definite surge in BTC’s price, with several market pundits predicting a new ATH above 100,000.

However, it is essential to note that with every halving cycle, the price stabilizes further, and price volatility declines.

Thus, the magnitude of the price surge after each bull cycle decreases.

For example, in 2017, BTC’s price surged over 17x compared to 2013 highs. The gains then declined in 2021 to a 4x increase from 2017 highs. Now, if we consider a minimum threshold of at least 2x from the 2021 cycle, BTC’s price could potentially reach 120,000.

In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price appears poised for a bullish rally, investors should exercise caution and avoid going all-in. Historical data suggests that the magnitude of price surges decreases with each cycle, and the price stabilizes further after every halving.