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Could Bitcoin Price Reach $1 Million? Arthur Hayes Thinks So, Here’s Why Others Agree

Last Updated May 22, 2024 4:19 PM
Shraddha Sharma
Last Updated May 22, 2024 4:19 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $1m.
  • The dollar-yen exchange rate and geopolitical implications play a crucial role as per Hayes.
  • Other experts like Willy Woo see new all-time highs.

 Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $1m. The prediction stems from current economic policies and geopolitical dynamics.

The broader crypto market sentiments also present positive commentary for the price in the long run with possible pullbacks in the short run.

What is a $1M Prediction Based On?

Arthur Hayes believes that global elites use various policy tools to maintain the status quo, often opting for short-term fixes over long-term solutions to stay in power.

He suggests  in a blog post that instead of making hard decisions, policymakers prefer to take the easy route, leaving difficult choices for future administrations.

In his arguments, Hayes highlights the importance of the dollar-yen exchange rate in the global economy. He argues that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have a tool at their disposal to manipulate this exchange rate: they can swap dollars for yen in unlimited amounts. By doing so, he argues, the BOJ can strengthen the yen without raising interest rates.

This in turn can cause significant financial losses due to the high volume of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) they hold.

Hayes is of the view that if the BOJ raised rates, it would lower the price of these bonds, causing massive losses.

BTC USD Trading Chart | Source:TradingView
BTC USD Trading Chart | Source:TradingView

He also explains the geopolitical implications of a weakening yen. China and Japan are competitors in the export market. According to Hayes, a weaker yen makes Japanese goods cheaper, hurting China’s export competitiveness. In response, China might devalue its currency, the yuan, to maintain its edge in global trade. Hayes states that this could lead to a chain reaction of currency devaluations, affecting the global economy.

In his analysis, Hayes points out that China might use this scenario to pressure the United States into influencing Japan to strengthen the yen.

If the US complies, it can prevent further economic disruptions. However, if these actions lead to excessive weakening of the dollar. The blog also notes that it could spell trouble for the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.

Long-Term BTC Price Trajectory

Hayes believes that these complex monetary actions will benefit Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As traditional currencies are manipulated and devalued, he suggests that institutional investors will flock to Bitcoin, driving its price higher. Hayes predicts that under these conditions, Bitcoin could potentially reach $1m, as it remains a strong asset in the face of global fiat currency debasement.

Meanwhile, as per crypto analyst, Willy Woo, while Bitcoin’s price wasn’t going up in the last two months, smart investors were quietly accumulating Bitcoin.

He believes that hidden demand means it’s just a matter of time before Bitcoin’s price breaks past its previous all-time highs.

Despite the positive outlook for Bitcoin, well-known trader John Bollinger, who created Bollinger Bands, is cautious about Bitcoin’s immediate future.

He notes  in a post on X that a “two-bar reversal” pattern at the upper Bollinger Band for Bitcoin suggests that the price might either stabilize or drop slightly in the short term. But he isn’t pessimistic about the long-term Bitcoin price trajectory.

Bitcoin Price Growth

The interplay between the dollar-yen exchange rate, geopolitical dynamics, and institutional investment creates a complex but compelling case for Bitcoin’s price growth.

Experts like Willy Woo see hidden demand pushing Bitcoin to new highs and John Bollinger advises caution in the short term, the long-term trajectory remains optimistic.

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