Bitcoin may be poised for a historically bullish July.
(Credit: Hameem Sarwar @ CCN)
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Key Takeaways
Since 2013, 7 out of 11 Julys have seen Bitcoin increase an average of 8%, though only if June was a month of decline.
Mt. Gox is to begin repaying $9 billion worth of BTC in July and place selling pressure on the market.
Bitcoin miner reserves are at a 14-year low.
After shedding around 10% of its gains throughout June, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is perfectly positioned for a bullish rebound in July.
But, in a post-halving market, massive Bitcoin miner sell-offs, Mt. Gox repayments, and several other market dynamics in play, will this July perform as well as previous years, and can BTC retake $70k again?
A Bitcoin Rebound
Historical trends are keeping crypto market analysts bullish amidst uncertain market conditions as they anticipate price increases throughout July.
Historically, when #Bitcoin has had a negative June, it tends to bounce back strongly in July. In fact, $BTC has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% during this month. pic.twitter.com/fJaIwc7Eob
According to CoinGlass data, which tracks the monthly returns of BTC starting in 2013, 7 out of 11 Julys have seen minimum monthly gains of around 8%. Most notably, they rebounded an average of 7.42% when June ended on a downtrend.
Memecoin trader Murad also noted this in his analysis, highlighting the roaring price rebounds. But things aren’t as simple this time due to the many market dynamics that are in play.
Mt. Gox and Miners
After losing approximately 850k BTC tokens in 2014 following its collapse, Mt. Gox is now beginning its repayment of 140,000 BTC worth $9 billion to creditors.
This is expected to place selling pressure on the market and push BTC below $60k again. Analysts predict this is because creditors may sell their assets to realize profits, especially after Bitcoin’s subsequent 16,000% price increase.
Mt Gox: We’re going to dump $9 billion in #Bitcoin into the market in July.
— The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) June 24, 2024
As ever, Bitcoin miners are also having a significant impact on price. In a post-halving market, miners typically sell their accumulated BTC tokens for profits or to upgrade their mining operations.
As anticipated, there was a supply shock, largely amplified by institutional demand for BTC following the U.S. approval of spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since the beginning of the year, BTC miner reserves have slid to a 14-year low with a total of 50k tokens being sold off.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Following its historic climb to $73k in March this year, BTC declined but continued trading above $60k. Overall market sentiment was bullish, giving altcoins and memecoins a much-needed boost.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)
June saw Bitcoin bottom out at $59k following a brief push above $70k at the beginning of June. Bulls could not sustain this momentum, and the price of BTC slid under the $70k threshold once more, declining some 15% from its peak.
Despite some predicting a bullish July based on historical performance, it’s worth remembering that past performance is not an indicator of future results, especially given the myriad developments in the crypto space.
Eddie is a gaming and crypto writer at CCN. Covering the often weird and wonderful world of Web3 with an adoring, but skeptical eye.
Prior to CCN, Eddie has spent the past seven years working his way through the crypto, finance, and technology industry. He began with PR and journalism with Bitcoin PR Buzz and BitcoinNews.com, eventually working his way to become a copywriter with a dozen firms, including the likes of Polkadot before returning to journalism in 2023.
Having studied Radio production and journalism at University in the UK, Eddie spent a few years making podcasts and presenting on a local London radio station as he built up his writing chops.
A lifelong skateboarder, Eddie can often be found at the skatepark or touring the streets looking for something new to try. That, or kicking back playing JRPGs on his original PSP.
