Arthur Hayes Makes Bold Fed Rate Cut Bet, Says BTC Must Hold $76K Through Tax Day

Key Takeaways

• Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s price needs to hold $76.5K in Support until tax day to see a revival.
• Hayes called for Fed intervention and a money printing spree to offer much-needed liquidity in the trade and crypto market.
• Hayes has been spot on with his Bitcoin market predictions, predicting sub $70K when BTC was trading above $100,000.

Bitmex co-founder and ardent crypto market observer Arthur Hayes is betting big on the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and money printing spree, claiming the gloomy Bitcoin market might see an uptrend post-tax day.

Hayes’s predictions on Bitcoin have been spot-on over the past couple of months. He was the first to predict a sizeable correction was in store when BTC traded above $100,000 with added euphoria after Donald Trump’s inauguration.

BTC Needs to Hold $76,500 Support Level

In an X post , Hayes noted that Bitcoin needs to hold its Support at $76,500 until Tax Day on April 15 to get out “of the woods.”

Bitcoin‘s price has struggled since Trump took charge of the White House on January 20. The first quarter saw a 12% decline in BTC’s price, marking the worst first quarter in seven years.

Bitcoin is trading just above $83,000 while struggling to hold the level, dipping to $76,623 during the March tariff wars.

While Trump has followed through on most of his pro-crypto promises, his trade war and ongoing tariff sprees have wiped out billions from the stock and crypto markets. 

Hayes was among the first to sound the alarm about potential macro factors having a negative impact on the crypto market. He also predicted that the Bitcoin reserve race might be a net negative for the crypto industry.

While people laughed at these predictions, BTC was trading above $100,000 and hitting new all-time highs; his prediction inevitably came true within weeks.

While many on-chain indicators suggest that crypto has entered the bear market, Hayes believes a Fed rate cut and subsequent dollar printing spree could offer the much-needed revival.

Fed Printing Spree and Rate Cut Could Revive Bitcoin

In another X post , Hayes said that Trump’s tariff formula is focused on minimizing the differences between the Current account balance and the Financial Account Balance.

The Current Account reflects trade imbalances, such as imports exceeding exports, while the Financial Account tracks foreign investments in U.S. assets like bonds.

Trump’s tariffs aim to reduce the trade deficit (Current Account imbalance). Still, fewer exports could limit foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially requiring domestic intervention such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and dollar printing to stabilize the market.

Hayes believes these imbalances cannot be rectified until the Fed steps in. Trump has long called for a rate cut, and Hayes believes this could be the deciding factor in market revival.

“The problem for treasuries is that foreigners can’t buy bonds without dollar exports. The Fed and banking system must ensure a well-functioning treasury market, which means Brrrr.”

Hayes believes the Fed needs to go on a printing spree to offer liquidity to foreign investors looking to buy bonds. The Fed’s printing spree has ultimately helped the crypto market with much-needed liquidity.

During the COVID era, the Fed’s money printing spree helped emerging markets to touch new highs, and Hayes predicted it could happen again if the Federal Reserve followed Trump’s advice.