Between state-backed Bitcoin reserves, presidential-endorsed memecoins, and tariff-fueled market swings, 2025 has been a wild ride for traditional and decentralized finance.
While crypto veterans are no strangers to volatility, new investors tempted by recent headlines to invest in digital assets may be left questioning their decision.
So, with half of the year already behind us, who’s feeling confident about their investment, and who’s losing sleep over red candles?
CCN analyzed thousands of comments from crypto communities across Reddit to find out.
What We Did
We analyzed comments from subreddits dedicated to the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, covering April to July 2025.
Using a Natural Language Processing (NLP) machine learning model from HuggingFace, we scored comments across Ekman’s six basic emotions: anger, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, surprise, or neutral.
We then tracked each coin’s price from the start to the end of Q2, and using a min-max normalization formula, assigned a score on their relative performance in each category.
Scores were totaled to create an overall Confidence Score, where the higher the score, the more positive the emotions displayed by commenters and/or the price movement for the quarter.
The Most Confident Crypto Communities
Hyperliquid ($HYPE) – Confidence Score: 88.02
With its first appearance in our Crypto Confidence Index, Hyperliquid surged to first place with a confidence score of 88.02 out of 100.
Primarily driven by a price increase of more than 200%, buzz around the launch of a new protocol, offering decentralized options trading, also sparked optimism among investors, with 82% of posts and comments showing positive sentiment.
SPX6900 ($SPX) – Confidence Score: 85.43
After experiencing a steep correction in the year’s first quarter, $SPX bounced back between April and July, ending Q2 up 170%.
$SPX’s place among 2025’s most bullish memecoins was also reflected in the community’s sentiment, with just 8.8% of online chatter expressing negative emotions such as fear, sadness, or anger.
Pudgy Penguins ($PENGU) – Confidence Score: 80.38
As one of the most recognisable NFT collections, news that the team behind Pudgy Penguins was set to launch a token on the Solana network was the cause of some excitement.
But shortly after reaching its all-time high, $PENGU entered a steep downtrend, losing more than 90% of its value.
However, the filing of a $PENGU and Pudgy Penguins-focused ETF and the launch of a Telegram game, Pengu Clash, led to a dramatic reversal, with $PENGU ending Q2 up 172%.
Top 25 Most Confident Crypto Communities
Least Confident Crypto Communities
GateToken ($GT) – Confidence Score: 3.08
With a confidence score of 3.08, GateToken finished last place in our Crypto Confidence Index for the second consecutive quarter.
$GT lost almost a third (32%) of its value between April and July, damaging community confidence. Roughly 30% of online posts and comments were categorized as fearful, sad, or angry.
Avalanche ($AVAX) – Confidence Score: 6.91
Avalanche investors were the second least confident in Q2, scoring just 6.91 out of a possible 100.
While losses (-4%) were down compared to Q1 (-47%), back-to-back quarters without significant upward movement were reflected in the sentiment analysis portion of our study, with 28% of commenters using generally negative language when discussing $AVAX.
Aptos ($APT) – Confidence Score: 13.45
After finishing Q1 in third place in the CCN Crypto Confidence Index, 2025 will be a rollercoaster year for Aptos.
While $APT finished the quarter down 7%, its decline was predominantly driven by community sentiment. More than a quarter (27%) of comments analyzed expressed negative emotions compared to just 2% of comments in Q1 – an increase of roughly 1,250%.
The spike in negative sentiment is likely related to the proposal to cut rewards for staking, the fallout of which completely overshadowed any positive news related to the announcement of “Shelby,” Aptos’ decentralized hot storage network.
Top 25 Least Confident Crypto Communities
New and Noteworthy
Pi ($PI) – Confidence Score: 47.53
After a six-year wait, Pi coin finally launched on exchanges in February – almost hitting $3 in less than a week.
However, concerns surrounding the project’s leadership and inability to satisfy the registration requirements of major exchanges resulted in a steep correction.
Despite a rebound in May, which saw prices exceed $1 for the first time since March, $PI ended Q2 down 29%.
Official Trump ($TRUMP) – Confidence Score: 32.08
Just two days before his inauguration, President Donald Trump announced the launch of his official memecoin, and within 24 hours, the price had surged to $75.
But by the end of Q1, $TRUMP had lost roughly 86% of its value.
Now down another 11% in Q2, the pro-crypto White House hasn’t been enough to revive the token. Despite the downward trend, its association with POTUS will likely keep $TRUMP in the headlines, potentially triggering future price rallies.
The Crypto Confidence Index Q2 2025
(Qualifying cryptocurrencies from the top 100 by market cap)
Managing Editor at CCN, Ryan James commented: ”With everything that’s happened this year, some investors might be left feeling like they have financial whiplash.”
“That’s why we created the Crypto Confidence Index, a tool to help people cut through the noise and get to the root of how communities and markets really feel about large-cap cryptocurrencies.”
“So, whether your portfolio is up or down in 2025, this index offers a pulse check on investor confidence, because belief in a project, or the lack thereof, can affect markets just as much as fundamentals.”
Whether diving into the latest crypto news and analysis, tracking real-world adoption, or exploring the evolving crypto lifestyle—from decentralized apps and Web3 gaming to bitcoin casinos and crypto sports betting—CCN is your go-to source for living and thriving on-chain.
Methodology
An analysis of active Reddit communities for the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap according to CoinMarketCap (July 2025)
Subreddits with at least 50 new posts between April and July 2025 that received at least one comment were considered “active.” 63 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap met this criterion.
Posts and comments were analyzed using a pretrained NLP machine learning model that scores the emotional tone of text across Ekman’s six basic emotions (anger, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, surprise, and neutral).
Comments classified as Fearful, Sad, and Angry were deemed a show of a lack of confidence, while those with a Joyous or Neutral tone were considered a show of confidence.
Comments assigned “disgust” or “surprise” were not considered.
The price of each cryptocurrency at the beginning and end of Q2, according to CoinMarketCap.
Where price data for the entire quarter wasn’t available (e.g., Pi coin), we used the closing price for the first trading day.
Cryptocurrencies were scored on their relative performance in each category using a min-max normalization formula. Scores were totaled to create an overall “Confidence Score.”
A higher score = more positive comments and/or price movement. (April and July 2025).
Dr. Lorena Nessi is an award-winning journalist and media technology expert with 15 years of experience in digital culture and communication. Based in Oxfordshire, UK, she combines academic insight with hands-on media practice.
She holds a PhD in Communication, Sociology, and Digital Cultures, and an MA in Globalization, Identity, and Technology.
Lorena has taught at Fairleigh Dickinson University, Nottingham Trent University, and the University of Oxford. She is a former producer for the BBC in London, with additional experience creating television content in Mexico and Japan.
Her research focuses on digital cultures, social media, technology, capitalism, and the societal impact of blockchain innovation.
She has written extensively on digital media and emerging technologies, with her work featured in both academic and media platforms. Her Web3 expertise explores how blockchain technologies shape culture, economics, and decentralized systems.
Outside of work, Lorena enjoys reading science fiction, playing strategic board games, traveling, and chasing adventures that get her heart racing. A perfect day ends with a relaxing spa and a good family meal.
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