- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by as much as 309 points on Monday.
- Joe Biden has opened up a 14-point lead on Donald Trump in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
- Although Trump is widely considered to be the better candidate for business, a decisive outcome, one way or another, is positive from the perspective of political risk.
The Dow and broader U.S. stock market traded higher on Monday, as investors dissected the latest polling numbers suggesting a more decisive victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq
All of Wall Street’s major indexes reported gains, mirroring a positive pre-market session for U.S. stock futures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by as much as 309 points, hitting an intraday high of 27,981.90.
Companies in the primary commodities sectors reported the most significant gains. The S&P 500’s materials index rose by 1.8%. Energy stocks were up 1.7%.
Monday’s open was a volatile session on Wall Street, as the CBOE VIX rose to an intraday high of 29.69. The so-called “fear index” is up 5% from Friday’s close and continues to trade well above the historical average of around 20.
Biden’s Lead Over Trump Widens
It would appear that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is emerging as the strong frontrunner to win the November election. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll gives the Democratic candidate a 14-point lead over President Trump.
Biden leads Trump 53% to 39% among registered voters, according to the new poll, which was conducted two days following the presidential debate. The first presidential debate offered little substance, with both candidates sparring over Covid-19, the economy, and worsening race relations. Watch the video below:
The polls suggest that the first presidential debate is having a material effect on Trump’s reelection chances.
As we saw in 2016, public opinion polls do not always reflect actual views on the ground. During the last election, forecasters gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance of winning the presidential election based on models that oversampled Democrats and underestimated Trump’s campaign momentum. Although Clinton won the popular vote, the outcome in the electoral college wasn’t even close.
The latest WSJ/NBC survey was conducted before President Trump announced he had contracted Covid-19. Although the president’s condition remains uncertain, a member of his medical team announced Sunday that he could soon leave the hospital.