Key Takeaways

• 35.88% price decrease seen since the SEC spike
• Real Volume lowest since November 2017
• Low on-chain activity
• Chart analysis points out a $0.37 target.

From its price spike on the SEC ruling news of $0.95 on July 14, the price of Ripple has been falling back down and is currently sitting at $0.612. This decrease of 35.88% has been seen while some of the major altcoins like BNB have been stagnant and moved sideways. 

There weren’t many positive signs from July 14 for the altcoin market in general. It appears that Ripple led the market’s positive sentiment to the upside,and it is not leading the way in losses. 

Will it start recovering soon, or are we in for more downside? 

Price Context 

The price of Ripple was in a downtrend from April 16, 2021, when it reached a bull market peak of $1.964, to June 18, 2022, when it came down to $0.293. As it reached a plateau, a consolidative range was formed to $0.533. 

On July 14, we finally saw a breakout from this range on an impulsive spike that recovered the price by 108% in four hours. 

Since then it has fallen by 35.88% and is now below the upper ascending trendline (orange) which indicates a starting uptrend. The RSI got up to 88.44% overbought level on July 14, indicating that the price reached its overextension. MACD provided an indication of the starting downtrend on July 24 when the signal line crossed the MACD line. 

The price still hasn’t gone back down inside the horizontal range below $0.53, which is a good sign but that might change soon, indicating a fakeout. 

On-Chain Data

The first thing to note is that the XRP real volume data from Messari , which subtracts estimated wash trading from the exchange-reported volume, is at its lowest level in five years and seven months, last seen in November 2017, and is $425 million.  

This particular level is when the price of Ripple was being traded at $0.199 before heading toward its all-time high. Low volume indicates that investors are not very active and supporting the price, so the current price doesn’t have much weight behind it. 

On the other hand, an increase in volume could indicate higher moves are in the way, and we might see a decisive one picking up the price again, causing further upward movement. All in all, it is a sign of caution. 

Regarding the supply distribution , we can clearly see a downtrend from November 2022. All major cohorts, or in other terms – whales, have been unloading their XRP holdings. Things are looking rather calm at the moment, but with no bullish action in sight, we can interpret the charts as bearish. 

Price prediction 

Even though we have seen some positive signs for the price of Ripple in the form of a breakout from the horizontal support zone on a 100% spike, this cryptocurrency is still not out of the woods. 

There is a strong possibility that the bear cycle hasn’t ended and that the increase we saw on July 14 marked the completion of the second wave X from the WXYXZ correction, which started on April 19, 2021, when the price reached a bull cycle high of just below $2.

If this is true, then the ending wave Z should develop to the downside for another and a final low. As the price started decreasing strongly, we might have just seen its beginning. 

Compared to the last time we saw a similar pattern – a breakout above the descending trendline on a high price spike, the price could go back past the point from which it came up. 

Projecting the target from the bars of November – December 2020, we reach a target of $0.3775. The first major support point would be at $0.52, which is the horizontal range resistance level. If the price goes back inside the range, the likelihood of a further decline would be much higher, and the $0.3775 would be somewhere around the media level from the horizontal range. 

Conclusion 

The price of Ripple has led the way in positive sentiment up until July 14, when a huge upward spike was made. The altcoin followed, but it appears that XRP is leading in losses as it has decreased by 35% since then. 

More downside would be expected from the current level, with the first major target at $0.52. If the price continues to go below this level, the next potential stopping point would be $0.3775. 

There isn’t much on-chain activity to support the possibility of the price going up from the current level, and although the whales aren’t dumping, they are slowly unloading their bags. Will this trend continue or not we are yet to see, but with volume being at its lowest from November 2017, volatility is expected soon. 

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.