In his recent YouTube video, Tone Vays, a seasoned trader, warns of a potential significant correction in the Bitcoin (BTC) market. Speaking to his 123,000 YouTube followers, Vays suggests that Bitcoin could fall to the mid-$30,000s unless it surpasses a crucial threshold.
He states his intention to stay out of the market with cash until Bitcoin either breaks above $44,000 or drops to $36,000. He mentions the possibility of a good buying opportunity at $39,000, but his primary focus is a rise above $44,000 or a drop to $36,000.
This latter figure aligns with key technical indicators, including the Momentum Reversal Indicator support line, the 128-day moving average, and a significant channel top.
Vays also addresses the pattern of pre-halving dumps in Bitcoin‘s history, stating he does not expect a similar event this time since such dumps typically occur closer to the halving date, not months in advance.
He predicts that Bitcoin won’t fall back to the $20,000s, setting $30,000 as his absolute low. However, he concedes that reaching this low would require a catastrophic event, with his optimal target remaining at $36,000. Although he anticipates a further drop, an upward move above $44,000 would invalidate this possibility.
“All signs are pointing to a much, much bigger correction. I hope this doesn’t happen. I really hope we go up from here. I don’t want to see us correct. We’ve already dealt with a huge bear market. However, I am going to remain on the sidelines with cash until Bitcoin breaks out above these moving averages. I need to break even the second moving average. I need $44,000. I need a daily close at $44,000 or a move to $36,000. I really need that to go long Bitcoin,” Vays said.
As per our previous analysis, we have mentioned that our primary expectation is bearish. The price of Bitcoin most likely ended its larger uptrend from November 2022.
With the ending diagonal pattern formed at the $45,000 resistance zone, we saw a breakout to the downside from the ascending channel. This could have signaled the start of a larger correction we have been calling for, but this still needs validation.
Maybe there isn’t a need for a catastrophic event to push the price of Bitcoin this lower, but pure price action logic. The ETF approval buying has been finished, and the next one would be at the halving expectations, which is not near.
In the meantime, the price could see a larger sell-off, especially as investors have seen nothing but gains for a year.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.