Key Takeaways
The price of SEI sharply declined after reaching its yearly high of $0.74 in December last year.
It then lost 55% of its value, returning to the horizontal support zone at $0.33, where it currently trades.
In combination with the Elliott Wave analysis, Bullish divergence points to the potential upturn.
The 4-hour chart reveals a corrective ABC structure, completing wave (C) near the strong horizontal support zone between $0.2310 and $0.3298.
This zone aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulsive wave, suggesting the possibility of a reversal from oversold conditions.
Descending trendlines enclosing wave (C) indicate a falling wedge pattern—a classic reversal signal. This aligns with the broader Elliott Wave framework, where the ABC correction typically precedes a new impulsive sequence.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this time frame is neutral but leaning toward a bullish reversal, as it recently rebounded from oversold levels.
In addition, there is a slightly bullish divergence, with the RSI making higher lows while the price made lower ones from Jan 19.
If SEI confirms a breakout above the wedge, initial resistance levels lie at $0.4062 (0.236 Fibonacci), $0.4556 (0.382 Fibonacci), and $0.4955 (0.5 Fibonacci).
A sustained move above these levels would solidify the bullish case and validate the beginning of wave (i) within a more extensive impulsive sequence.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, the immediate wave count suggests that SEI has initiated wave (i) after touching its low at $0.3298.
A pullback within wave (ii) appears to be underway, likely targeting the 0.382 ($0.4556) or 0.618 ($0.4062) Fibonacci retracement levels.
Following the completion of wave (ii), SEI is expected to rally toward the 0.618 Fibonacci extension ($0.5354), which coincides with wave (iii) of the ongoing impulsive sequence.
Subsequent corrections (wave iv) might test $0.4556 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) before the price climbs to the 1.0 extension ($0.6646) or even the 1.272 extension ($0.7556), which would likely mark the peak of wave (v).
The RSI on this time frame corroborates this bullish outlook, showing mild divergence and signaling growing buyer interest.
A confirmed breakout above $0.4062 would provide early validation of this projection.
Invalidation Zone: A sustained breakdown below $0.2310 would negate the bullish wave count and suggest further downside.
This comprehensive analysis highlights SEI’s potential for bullish continuation, contingent on maintaining support and breaking key resistance levels.
The convergence of Elliott Wave counts, Fibonacci levels and RSI signals suggests an imminent trend shift worth monitoring.