The price of OKX exchange token OKB fell today by 3.64% but is still in an uptrend overall. It has been defiant to the general market movement and uncorrelated to major sentiment shifts, with its own price progression logic.
Compared to the Total 3 – market capitalization that excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum, from June 18, 2022, while the majority of the altcoin market continued decreasing for another lower low to January 1, the price of OKB made a tremendous increase of 467%.
This increase ended on February 19 at a new all-time high of $58.77 when we saw the price forming a symmetrical triangle. As the price came down to $41 which was on August 3, it started increasing again resulting in a breakout from the triangle.
It is currently being traded at around $47, and the momentum looks strong. Does this mean that the price is headed for a new all-time high?
The vast majority of OKB token holders are now in profit as data from Into The Block suggests.
There are only 336 addresses that are out of money, while there are 43,520 in the money. Those that are out of money have either bought around the all-time high territory inside the triangle or just recently and are now out of money as the price depreciated.
The ownership concentration suggests that OKB holders are mostly retail investors, followed by whales and an insignificant amount of investors. Cohorts are defined as follows:
“Whale: An address that owns more than 1% of the circulating supply. Investor: An address that owns between 0.1% and 1% of the circulating supply. Retail: An address that owns less than 0.1% of the circulating supply.”
The increase was seen from August 4 and definitely isn’t caused by whales as the large number of transactions indicate. Large transactions are defined as more than $100,000 in a single on-chain transaction. That might not just be important as in we have seen that the whales are not dominating this market. Also in the rise of 467% that took place from June 18, 2022, we haven’t seen many large transactions as well.
The number of transactions is rather low. Compared to its 7-day average of 24,29 txs currently, it is sitting at 23, and with its 7-day high of 62 made Tuesday, August 8.
All of this suggests low on-chain activity.
Looking at the daily log chart for OKB/USDT trading pair from OKX exchange data, we can see more signs of wary than to be optimistic.
The price did make a breakout from its symmetrical triangle but some of the indicators are signaling a bearish pattern. Namely, the SMA 200 and SMA 50 cross has been bearish as it signals the start of a downtrend on July 23. On the contrary, as a breakout was made it didn’t signal an uptrend by a golden cross in which the SMA 50 goes above the SMA 200.
A recovery from August 4, made it to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the all-time high to $37.5, which was the ending point of the decline that followed. This level is known to be a typical stopping point for corrective waves and oftentimes serves as strong resistance. Currently, we are seeing a rejection at this level so the price might be starting a downturn.
RSI was also shown that the OKB entered an overbought territory as it reached 76% yesterday, August 10. The last two times we have seen the RSI on these levels the price topped out and start decreasing impulsively.
Counting the wave structure from the all-time high we can see that the price moved in four three-wave patterns so far, with the rise from August 4 beginning the C wave from the last ABC.
As this is a complex correction, the waves of the higher degree are WXYXZ out of which the last ABC started on June 12 when the price fell to $38, is the second wave X.
In this case, the current rise ended on the same length of wave A, measured by the Fibonacci extension tool. Now according to this count, we are going to see the final ABC move to the downside which is wave Z of the higher degree, and with it the completion of this complex correction. The price target for this Z wave would be around $37.50.
Alternatively, the correction ended on the Y wave on June 12 from the WXY correction that started after the ATH. In this case, from there, a five-wave impulse started out of which we are still seeing the development of wave 3 in the current rise.
If this count is true, then we are going to see more upside from the current levels and to $54.30 where the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level is. Ultimately the price is going to at least revisit the ATH territory, if not make a new minor ATH.
OKB has been defying the market trend and has been increasing until February, when it reached a new all-time high. A correction started and a symmetrical triangle formed out of which we have seen a breakout this week on Tuesday.
The momentum looks strong, but there are some bearish signs ahead. Considering low on-chain activity and what chart analysis says, the more likely scenario now is a downfall to $37.50.
However, if the price catches more traction and potentially whales get active as they see a breakout, we could see the price immediately continuing its upward trajectory to $54 which would then validate the bullish scenario in which a new all-time high is possible.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.