July was mostly positive for the cryptocurrency market, with many major news events driving the price rises. Most notably, the XRP vs. SEC regulatory development caused immense euphoria. Last week, on July 13, we saw price rallies in XRP and other altcoins like XLM.
Even more recently, Chainlink has spiked by 20% on the CCIP news, with further upside expected.
Overall the altcoin market cap has been on the rise since June 15, and saw its biggest spike on July 13, as it recovered by 20%. Currently, it is sitting slightly lower, but the bullish momentum is expected to continue in the following days.
In contrast, the price of ETH has been pretty stagnant, but there are some new indications that this cryptocurrency is just waiting for its turn to surpass $2000 and go beyond finally.
From June 18, last year, when the price of ETH fell to $897 at its lowest point, the price of Ethereum was in recovery. This recovery was made in the form of an ascending triangle, with its resistance zone being a horizontal one between $1,740 and $2,140.
On April 16, we saw an interaction with the upper resistance level that ended as rejection, and a downturn was made back to the ascending support from which it bounced again on June 15.
Since then, as the price made a minor recovery, the price has been moving sideways, around $1,890, which is the resistance zone median line.
If we were to see the completion of the upward move previously seen, the price should have started moving impulsively to the downside. Instead, it has been consolidating for 30 days which can be interpreted as a bullish sign.
The $2,000 mark isn’t as significant considering the price structure. Still, it is more of a psychological level above which investors would feel more confident that the price could continue moving further beyond.
Periods of low volatility are usually followed by accumulation as long-term investors and whales appreciate the purchase price certainty as they buy in batches.
We can see that ETH has been taken off the exchanges in a higher number throughout this stagnant period from March, up until now, and with more drastic amounts from June 13 before the price spike.
A Netflow histogram chart also suggests that investors are accumulating in increasing numbers with more extreme values seen on the negative Netflow side compared to only a few days with high positive Netflow since March. The highest negative spike was on June 14 with 486,61K ETH, while the highest positive spike seen on the chart was back on May 1 with 245,78K ETH.
When it comes to SOPR it has been mostly managing to hold above its 1 mark, meaning that most investors are selling at a profit. The values haven’t changed much, and only a few dips and spikes have been seen from March, mostly due to low price changes in ETH.
This could be interpreted as a sign that investors are still waiting for a determining move to show them the next long-term trend, but it can also be interpreted as a bullish sign. SOPR usually moves either with high price changes or with whale activity.
On the other hand, derivatives paint a different picture. These metrics indicate some short-term negativity.
The funding rate suggests that short-position traders are currently dominant, with more sell orders currently being placed. Open interest also favors a bearish sentiment as futures contracts are closing, quite possibly due to liquidations, as 5712770.28 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Ethereum is currently at a crossroads between a bearish and bullish scenario. Due to insignificant price action showing low volatility, we can conclude that indecision is ruling this market. With some positive signs from the long-term investors countered by the negative sentiment on the side of short-term positions, it is still unclear who will win.
According to the bearish Elliott Wave count, from the 18th of June last year, we have seen this whole recovery as an ABC correction that ended in mid-April this year when the price of ETH reached $2124.
If this is true, a long-term downtrend has started that will lead the price back below $800. In this case, the currently seen ascending channel from June 22 is only a corrective move which will be followed by a downfall similar to what happened around the beginning of November last year.
Alternatively, a bullish scenario counts the rise from November 21 until April 16 as not of the same degree as the previous one but a lower degree sub-wave.
With the downfall from April 16 to June 15, being a 0.5 Fib retracement being potentially the first two sub-wave of the higher degree wave 3, this indicates that from June 15, the next rise has begun.
In this scenario, we saw the bottom on June 18 last year, and since then, the start of the next bull cycle will lead the price of ETH to a new all-time high.
Since April 16, the price of Ethereum has been moving inside its horizontal resistance zone. We have seen some high volatility moves, but the volatility diminished in the last 30 days, indicating indecision.
On-chain metrics show a mixed sentiment between long-term holders and short-term traders, as the first cohort has been accumulating, while the second has been opening short positions. Some near-term turmoil might be seen due to these factors, and it still needs to be evident who will win in the end.
This is why we have outlined two possible scenarios that are in play and whose validation we are yet to confirm. A breakout above the $2,000 level would definitely lean toward a bullish one a true validation would come in place if the price manages to surpass $2,124, which is the mid-April high.
On the other hand, if the price makes a sharp downturn and falls below $1,710, the bearish scenario would look more likely.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.