TRON (TRX) has been one of the most resilient altcoins throughout the recent market cycle.
It sustained its momentum by creating several higher lows along its parabolic trend.
While bulls have defended the key levels, most recently preventing a breakdown in September, it is unclear if they have the upper hand.
The big question now is: Will TRX reach a new all-time high in 2025, or has the cycle already peaked?
The weekly time frame chart shows that TRX has increased alongside a parabolic ascending support trend line since November 2022.
TRX has bounced at this trend line several times (green icons), most recently in September (green icon).
This final bounce was significant because it validated the trend line and the $0.32 horizontal support area, creating a very long lower wick.
While bulls stepped in and prevented a breakdown, it remains to be seen whether the TRX price stays above the trend line or breaks down instead.

Momentum indicators are showing weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences.
Additionally, the RSI fell below 70, while the MACD nearly made a bearish cross.
So, on one hand, the price action clearly shows a bullish trend with several higher lows.
On the other hand, momentum indicators are showing weakness, hinting at a possible local top ahead.
Therefore, the TRX price prediction is unclear based on the weekly time frame readings alone.
TRON’s wave count is irregular, but still fits Elliott Wave rules quite well.
According to the count, TRX completed a long-term triangle correction with a breakout in April 2024.
Since then, it has finished a five-wave upward movement (green) and is in its final portion.
While the wave count predicts a new all-time high, there is a worrisome development regarding it.

The all-time high in December 2024 is an extreme wick high, meaning that wave five may not reach it.
The top could already be in since the TRX price has already closed above its previous highest weekly close.
If not, the next target for a TRX all-time high will be $0.48.
The short-term count leans toward a completed upward movement rather than an extension.
This is because a short-term five-wave increase is over, ending at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at $0.36.

TRX’s increase is an expanding diagonal, so it fits even better with the long-term chances of a cycle top.
Hence, the TRX price might have already topped, and to invalidate this bearish prediction, it must close above the $0.36 resistance.
If that happens, a rally to $0.48 by the end of the year is not out of the question.
TRX’s price analysis shows strength, but weakening momentum signals suggest caution is warranted.
If TRX can reclaim and close above $0.36, the path to $0.48 and potentially a fresh all-time high remains plausible.
However, failure to hold current support could confirm that the cycle top is already behind us.