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TRON (TRX) Price Bounces 20% After Retesting Key Support — Important Chart Pattern Now in Play

Published 17 September 2025
Valdrin Tahiri
Authors
Edited by Insha Zia
Key Takeaways
  • TRON (TRX) follows a parabolic ascending support trend line.
  • The TRX price is in the fifth and final wave of its upward movement.
  • Will TRX reach a new all-time high in 2025, or is the cycle top already in?

TRON (TRX) has been one of the most resilient altcoins throughout the recent market cycle.

It sustained its momentum by creating several higher lows along its parabolic trend.

While bulls have defended the key levels, most recently preventing a breakdown in September, it is unclear if they have the upper hand.

The big question now is: Will TRX reach a new all-time high in 2025, or has the cycle already peaked?

TRX Price Analysis

The weekly time frame chart shows that TRX has increased alongside a parabolic ascending support trend line since November 2022.

TRX has bounced at this trend line several times (green icons), most recently in September (green icon).

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This final bounce was significant because it validated the trend line and the $0.32 horizontal support area, creating a very long lower wick.

While bulls stepped in and prevented a breakdown, it remains to be seen whether the TRX price stays above the trend line or breaks down instead.

TRX Parabola
TRX/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Momentum indicators are showing weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences.

Additionally, the RSI fell below 70, while the MACD nearly made a bearish cross.

So, on one hand, the price action clearly shows a bullish trend with several higher lows.

On the other hand, momentum indicators are showing weakness, hinting at a possible local top ahead.

Therefore, the TRX price prediction is unclear based on the weekly time frame readings alone.

What’s Next for TRX?

TRON’s wave count is irregular, but still fits Elliott Wave rules quite well.

According to the count, TRX completed a long-term triangle correction with a breakout in April 2024.

Since then, it has finished a five-wave upward movement (green) and is in its final portion.

While the wave count predicts a new all-time high, there is a worrisome development regarding it.

TRX Wave Count
TRX/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

The all-time high in December 2024 is an extreme wick high, meaning that wave five may not reach it.

The top could already be in since the TRX price has already closed above its previous highest weekly close.

If not, the next target for a TRX all-time high will be $0.48.

The short-term count leans toward a completed upward movement rather than an extension.

This is because a short-term five-wave increase is over, ending at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at $0.36.

TRX Short-Term Count
TRX/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

TRX’s increase is an expanding diagonal, so it fits even better with the long-term chances of a cycle top.

Hence, the TRX price might have already topped, and to invalidate this bearish prediction, it must close above the $0.36 resistance.

If that happens, a rally to $0.48 by the end of the year is not out of the question.

Caution Warranted

TRX’s price analysis shows strength, but weakening momentum signals suggest caution is warranted.

If TRX can reclaim and close above $0.36, the path to $0.48 and potentially a fresh all-time high remains plausible.

However, failure to hold current support could confirm that the cycle top is already behind us.

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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