Is Solana’s $200 breakout failing? | Credit: Veronica Cestari
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Key Takeaways
Despite a brief breakout above $190, Solana lacks trend strength, with ADX at 15.49.
Near-term risk is a pullback toward $171.73, unless buyers reclaim control.
On the upside, reclaiming bullish indicators could reignite SOL’s push toward $242.57
Solana’s (SOL) price hit $200 last Wednesday but hasn’t been able to reclaim it since. While there have been flashes of bullish intent, the current price action has raised doubts about a quick return to all-time highs.
As of press time, SOL trades at $192.57, holding steady but lacking strong follow-through.
Given the current setup, the altcoin may need more time before making another push toward its January peak.
Solana Breakout Lacks Conviction
On the 4-hour SOL/USD chart, Solana recently broke out of a descending channel, pushing past the $190 level.
However, the red line of the Supertrend indicator has now flipped above the price, casting some doubt on the strength of the breakout. When the Supertrend sits above the price, it signals bearish momentum and acts as resistance.
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Therefore, this positioning suggests that despite the recent move higher, sellers still have the upper hand. Hence, the breakout attempt may lack the conviction needed for a sustained rally — at least in the short term.
Unless SOL’s price can reclaim and hold above the Supertrend line, a retest of support around $185 isn’t off the table. Beyond that, the Average Directional Index (ADX) also supports the move.
At press time, Solana’s ADX reading sits at 15.49 — well below the 25 threshold typically used to confirm a strong trend.
This low reading signals that the recent uptrend lacks conviction, and momentum behind the move is weakening.
As a result, Solana’s price may be vulnerable to a pullback, especially if buying volume doesn’t pick up.
Magnet Zone Below Price
In line with this thesis, the liquidation heatmap also shows that SOL might retrace before a significant attempt at a new high.
The liquidation heatmap identifies where liquidation levels are likely to be triggered. However, it does not predict where the price will stop once those levels are hit.
A high concentration of potential liquidation levels within a specific price range signals a magnet zone (yellow). This means the price is more likely to gravitate toward that area, especially during periods of high volatility.
From the image above, the higher liquidity concentration lies around $185. Hence, if buying pressure fails to intensify, SOL’s price might decline to $185 or much below it.
Furthermore, the daily chart is flashing caution for Solana. The Parabolic SAR dots have flipped above the price, signaling a possible trend reversal or, at a minimum, a pause in the current uptrend.
When SAR dots appear above the candle, they act as a warning sign for short-term pullbacks. In addition, the green histogram bars on the MACD have started to decline from recent peaks, indicating that bullish momentum is cooling off.
At the same time, the 12-day EMA (blue) and 26-day EMA (orange) are narrowing, hinting at a potential MACD crossover. If confirmed, this could further support the case for a short-term correction..
Should this trend remain the same, Solana’s price might fail to break the overhead resistance. If that were to happen, the market value might decline to $171.73.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
