Shiba Inu plunges 45% YTD — but a 97% holder retention hints at conviction | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
SHIB’s holder retention rate has soared to 97.25%, suggesting a firm long-term conviction.
The MVRV ratio sits at -30.52%, indicating unrealized losses and a reduced likelihood of large selling
SHIB trades within an ascending triangle, with analysis showing it could target $0.000016.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has had a rough year so far, with its price down 45% year-to-date. For most assets, that kind of slump would send investors running, but the SHIB Army isn’t flinching.
Despite the downturn, on-chain data shows holders are staying put, showing a level of loyalty and conviction that’s rare in crypto. While this doesn’t necessarily signal an immediate rebound, it could have important implications for SHIB’s long-term outlook.
Shiba Inu Sentiment Strengthens
According to Glassnode, SHIB holders’ retention rate has spiked to a yearly high of 97.25%. This metric measures the percentage of addresses consistently holding an asset across consecutive 30-day periods.
Higher retention rates indicate strong confidence and long-term commitment. For instance, an 80% retention rate means 8 out of 10 previous holders still hold, signaling conviction.
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In contrast, lower retention may indicate increased selling pressure or fading interest. Since the former is the case for the memecoin, SHIB’s price will likely trade much higher mid- to long-term.
However, that will only happen if SHIB holders’ confidence in the asset remains intact in the coming weeks and months. Should the retention rate slide below 50% as time passes, this forecast could be invalidated.
Furthermore, a look at Santiment data shows that this development also aligns with the signs shown by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio shows if a cryptocurrency is close to its bottom (accumulation) or near its top (distribution zone).
When the metric is exceptionally high, it is close to the cycle top, and a correction might occur. However, as of this writing, the SHIB MVRV ratio sits at -30.52%, indicating high unrealized losses in recent times.
Since this is the case, SHIB holders are less likely to sell. Hence, this serves as an accumulation zone, suggesting that the price still has room to recover.
Despite the correction that SHIB has experienced, it appears to be set for short-term relief. For instance, on the 4-hour chart, SHIB’s price trades in an ascending triangle, aiming to retest support at $0.000012.
Amid this move, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has risen above the zero signal line. This indicates rising buying pressure that could drive SHIB’s market value higher.
If sustained, the cryptocurrency’s price might break the resistance at $0.000014 and rise to $0.000016 in the short term. However, SHIB could invalidate this prediction if selling pressure comes into play.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
