Polkadot (DOT) Price Struggles to Break Resistance After 12% ETF Rally

Key Takeaways

• DOT price jumped from the horizontal support following Grayscale’s Polkadot ETF filing on Feb. 25.
• The Supertrend shows that the altcoin faces resistance near $6, which could hinder an extended hike.
• DOT’s price risks falling below $4 as the daily chart shows it has yet to breach key Fibonacci levels.
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Polkadot’s (DOT) price surged by 12% following Grayscale’s application for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the cryptocurrency. This move comes weeks after the asset management firm filed for XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs.

Before the disclosure, DOT’s price was $4.30. While trading closer to $5 now, CCN observes that it has yet to break above a bearish pattern, questioning the rally’s sustainability.

With DOT at a critical juncture, will the price break above this resistance? This analysis looks at the possibility.

Polkadot Strength Fizzles Amid ETF Buzz

On Tuesday, Feb. 25, Nasdaq confirmed that Grayscale had applied for a Polkadot ETF with the U.S. SEC.

According to CCN’s findings, the firm submitted a 19b-4 form to the regulatory agency to review the application and confirm whether the ETF could begin trading on the exchange.

If approved, the ETF will grant investors exposure to DOT through shares, not the cryptocurrency itself. Interestingly, Grayscale is not the only asset manager interested in a Polkadot ETF.

21Shares filed to launch a similar product earlier this month, but DOT’s price reacted differently.

The daily chart showed two bearish engulfing candles between February 2 and 3, indicating a decline at that time.

Despite the price increase this time, DOT’s price keeps trading within a descending triangle.

A descending triangle is a pattern that features a falling upper trendline and a flatter horizontal lower support, signaling potential downward price movement.

As seen above, Polkadot’s price has bounced off the support at $4.41. However, it is still confined within the pattern and has yet to break above the upper trendline.

Failure to rise above this trendline might make it difficult for DOT’s price to test the resistance near $6.31 and $7.44.

Bearish Setup Puts DOT at Risk

On the same daily chart, the Supertrend indicator seems to align with the thesis. The Supertrend shows if a cryptocurrency is in a downtrend or uptrend.

When the green line of the indicator is below the price, the trend is bullish, and the price can increase. For instance, this was the case around November 2024, as DOT’s price increased from $3.80 to $10.6 by the following month.

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This time, the red segment of the Supertrend is above the price, indicating a bearish position. If sustained, DOT’s price might not be able to breach the resistance by nearly $6.

If validated, this technical setup could push DOT back, and the price might fall below $4.

However, if DOT breaks above the upper trendline of the triangle pattern, the uptrend might continue.

In that case, the token could rise toward $8. Also, if the SEC acknowledges the Polkadot ETF and the process of potential approval advances, this could lead to increased demand. In that case, DOT could rise above $10.