Key Takeaways
From July 5, Mantle’s (MNT) price surged by 47%, reaching $0.90. However, on July 22, it encountered resistance at this level, leading to sideways movement before reversing under selling pressure. Today, Mantle’s price dropped to $0.70, a 23% decline from its July high.
The decline retested the previously broken descending resistance, potentially indicating support and confirming the bullish trend. Alternatively, if the MNT falls through this level, it could re-enter the descending structure that has been in place since late March.
Which scenario is more likely to play out with two scenarios on the table?
MNT reached an all-time high of $1.51 on April 7, ending its bullish phase in October last year. Afterward, it entered a downtrend, forming a descending triangle and moving in a three-wave manner until it reached a low of $0.60 on July 5.
As Mantle entered the oversold zone, indicated by the daily RSI, the price reversed and recovered significantly, reaching a high of $0.90 on July 20. This peak marked the completion of its upward move, followed by a descending trend that began on July 22.
According to our previous analysis, this decline aligns with the expectation of the first two sub-waves in a new five-wave impulse to the upside. However, confirmation of this bullish projection is needed, as Mantle has retraced to the typical 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.70. This level often serves as a critical support point in bullish scenarios, and a rebound from here could confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Zooming into the hourly chart, we observe several indicators suggesting the low could be priced in. Particularly, the depth of the retracement aligns with the typical retracement amount seen in the corrective stages of the second sub-wave.
Second, we’ve identified a three-wave advancement following a major uptrend, which typically indicates a corrective stage. This pattern is often referred to as an ABC correction. Once this correction concludes, the third sub-wave can begin with increased momentum, potentially driving the price significantly higher.
Third, the hourly RSI has dipped into the oversold zone. Historical data shows that such dips are often followed by price bounces and upward trends. Whether this marks the start of a new, larger uptrend, MNT is likely to find support in its current range.
Should MNT’s price rise above $0.90, it would strongly indicate the start of a larger five-wave impulse, potentially pushing values above $1.20.