Key Takeaways
Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown significant volatility recently, reaching a yearly high of $0.44 on Nov. 13 after breaking out of an ascending channel.
This parabolic rise followed an ascending channel breakout on Oct. 28 and a successful retest of support on Nov. 3.
However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals overbought conditions. DOGE has entered a consolidation phase, raising questions about whether the rally has more room to run or if a deeper correction is ahead.
On March 28, DOGE reached its yearly high of $0.22, completing a five-wave structure that began in October 2023.
This peak was followed by a corrective phase, forming a descending triangle that retraced to $0.090, where DOGE found strong horizontal support.
After bouncing from this level, DOGE encountered descending resistance on Sept.14, resulting in a brief pullback.
Despite this, DOGE maintained positive momentum by forming a higher low during the retracement. A new upward movement began on Sept. 16, breaking through descending resistance and reaching $0.13 by Sept. 28.
However, this rally was short-lived, as a sharp 24% drop erased gains and raised concerns about the bullish outlook.
The correction formed an ABCDE structure, followed by an ascending channel breakout on Oct. 28. After retesting the breakout level as support on Nov. 3, DOGE began another bullish move, peaking at a new yearly high of $0.44 on Nov. 13.
The current parabolic rise has pushed the daily RSI into overbought territory, raising questions about whether the rally has more room to run.
The hourly chart shows DOGE completing its wave three high at $0.4372, followed by a descending triangle to a low of $0.36.
Additionally, if the previous assumption that the recent high was wave three of the higher degree count is correct, this could be the A wave from the coming ABC correction.
Wave B forms a 13% relief bounce toward $0.41 (the 0.786 Fib retracement of wave A). If wave B is validated by facing resistance, the price may enter wave C, targeting deeper retracement levels around $0.30 at the 1 Fib extension level.
The price action suggests that DOGE remains in a consolidation phase as it transitions from wave three to wave four.
A breakout direction from this corrective structure will determine whether DOGE resumes its bullish trajectory for wave five or extends its corrective phase.
The target could surpass $0.50 for wave five, but failure to maintain support may lead to a more significant decline.
Finally, the price must hold above $0.3370 for the bullish outlook to remain intact. A break below this level could extend the correction to $0.30 (1 Fib retracement), while a sustained move above $0.40 could set the stage for the next bullish wave.