Key Takeaways
Chainlink (LINK) experienced significant volatility in 2023, starting with a breakout rally that led to an 81% surge, followed by corrective phases.
The analysis reviews LINK’s wave patterns, key support levels, and potential scenarios that might signal a new uptrend or further downside.
Chainlink surged to $22.50 on March 11, marking an 81% increase from its Jan. 8 low of $12.50. Before this rise, LINK consolidated around $15 since November, suggesting an accumulation phase.
Chainlink’s uptrend began with a breakout above $9 on Oct. 9 of the previous year, completing the first five-wave sequence of this bullish phase.
This suggests that the subsequent downturn represents the initial correction in the ongoing bull market, aligning with wave two. On Aug. 5, LINK found support at the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $9, and the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered oversold territory.
The price rebounded, reaching a high of $11.36 on Aug. 22 and a slightly higher one of $13 on Sept. 28. These could be an early sign of a staring bull phase, but the recovery from Aug. 5 is still not showing a clear five-wave pattern which should be taken with caution.
Zooming into the hourly chart and analyzing the wave structure, LINK may have begun a lower-degree five-wave uptrend.
The initial rise from Aug. 5 to 8 was followed by a symmetrical triangle pattern, potentially forming the first two sub-waves.
The recent breakout above the triangle’s resistance suggests a third sub-wave.
However, on its subsequent decline, it reverted below $10, invalidating this bullish possibility.
The next higher was a higher one of $13, and the following 20% decline brought the price back to the ascending support on yet another higher low.
A bounce is expected, but the overall outlook doesn’t look bullish. We will likely see another ABC structure on the upside, with the potential to reach another higher high of $15.
But once it ends, LINK could continue the higher-degree downtrend and face lower values than on Aug. 5.