LINK price spikes on ETF hype | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
LINK’s price jumps 18% after ETF debut, reclaiming $14 resistance.
On-chain activity is weak, as Chainlink holders remain in the red.
Breakout needs stronger demand, risks $10.93 if momentum fades.
Chainlink’s (LINK) price has increased nearly 18% over the past 24 hours, and the timing couldn’t be better.
Its long-awaited ETF debut occurred yesterday, Dec. 2. Unlike the signs it had shown earlier, the event was bullish for the cryptocurrency.
In this analysis, CCN examines whether the Chainlink ETF launch can help push LINK’s price higher after it reclaimed $14.
Chainlink Bounces After ETF Debut
At the time of writing, Chainlink was trading near $14.27, marking a notable 44.41% year-to-date (YTD) decline.
This sharp increase indicates a significant gain of momentum. It also contradicts the bearish signals the market saw some days.
During that period, LINK’s price flashed readiness to slide below $10. However, as optimism ahead of the launch of a Chainlink ETF, the trend changed
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Sentiment improved quickly, and demand increased. Following this, the altcoin broke its resistance, especially as Grayscale confirmed the launch of the ETF.
On Dec. 1, Grayscale confirmed that the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (Ticker: GLNK) would officially go live.
“Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF (Ticker: GLNK) offers investors direct exposure to LINK. GLNK starts trading on NYSE Arca tomorrow.” It noted.
According to fund details, the ETF holds $15,583,645 in Assets Under Management (AUM).
It currently manages a total of 1,306,802.9306 LINK. Meanwhile, the price per share will likely begin $0.88.
User Activity Declines
Despite the excitement surrounding the Chainlink ETF launch, on-chain data shows a notable decline in network engagement.
The Activity Retention Rate has dropped to 22.13%.
The Activity Retention Rate measures how many addresses that were active in the previous 30 days have continued to interact with the token in the current period.
A higher retention rate typically signals strong utility and sustained user involvement. In contrast, a falling retention rate indicates fewer repeated interactions on-chain.
However, this decline does not automatically mean users are losing interest. Overall, the drop to 22.13% highlights a decrease in short-term activity.
Additionally, on-chain data from Santiment indicates that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Long/Short Difference has entered negative territory.
LINK MVRV Long/Short Difference | Credit: Santiment
This position indicates that both short-term and long-term holders are now holding higher levels of unrealized losses.
More importantly, the metric has dropped to its lowest point since August.
However, historically, extremely negative readings can also precede potential price reversals.
But for now, while Chainlink’s price might trade higher, it is unlikely to experience another double-digit rally in the coming days.
LINK Price Prediction: More Demand Needed
Looking at the daily chart, Chainlink’s price remains confined within a descending channel.
Each attempt to break higher has been rejected at the channel’s upper boundary. As a result, LINK’s price continues to trend downward.
However, as of this writing, the altcoin has bounced above the support line. A closer look shows that it is attempting to breach the overhead resistance line.
At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has flipped into the negative region. This momentum shift confirms weakening bullish strength.
Despite the excitement around the upcoming Chainlink ETF, Holders’ Sentiment has failed to rise above the zero line.
This lack of improvement suggests that investors are not yet positioning aggressively for an extended upside.
Due to these factors, LINK’s price risks failing in its attempt to breach the upper trendline.
However, the outlook changes if demand increases again after the ETF launch.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
