Aptos Price Climbs as Bitcoin Price Falls: Will History Repeat with Another Surge?

Key Takeaways

• The Aptos price shows a positive daily performance despite Bitcoin’s fall.
• Aptos has been uncorrelated with Bitcoin twice before in the last 10 months.
• Is this week’s negative correlation a bullish or a bearish sign for Aptos?

Historically, Aptos has exhibited a positive correlation with Bitcoin with the exception of two short periods. Both were followed by significant price increases.

Now, as Bitcoin faces downward volatility, Aptos remains resilient, prompting the question: Can Aptos reach its all-time high of $19.90 once Bitcoin stabilizes?

Are Aptos and Bitcoin Correlated?

There is a very interesting development transpiring since March 14, when BTC (blue) reached its all-time high price of $73,794. Since then, the APT price (white) has increased by 16% while BTC has fallen by 12%. This goes contrary to the norm, in which the APT price and Bitcoin move in the same direction.

In fact, looking at the movement since August 2022, the APT  price has been positively correlated with Bitcoin the vast majority of the time, as seen by the correlation indicator (blue).

APT and BTC had close to a perfect positive correlation (dashed, white) most of the time, meaning that a price movement in BTC causes a price movement in the same scale and direction for APT. 

The correlation fell to negative territory only twice (dashed, yellow), and it was nowhere close to perfectly negative correlation (dashed, green).

The two periods in question are between September 18 and 27, 2023, and January 7 to 19, 2024 (red lines). During this time, the APT price increased despite a BTC price drop. Interestingly, APT surged significantly afterward, reaching new highs.

Aptos Price Prediction: Where to Next?

The weekly time frame outlook for APT is bullish. The price action shows that APT increased above the confluence of resistance levels at $14.40, created by a horizontal resistance area and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level. This is the final resistance area before the all-time high of $19.90.

The weekly RSI and MACD both support the continuing of the increase, since they are moving upward and show no sign of weakening momentum.

Also, the periods of negative correlation came before a maximum of two weeks consolidation before another upward movement. If the pattern holds, the APT price will consolidate above the $14.40 support area before triggering an upward movement to at least $19, reaching the all-time high horizontal resistance area.

This bullish APT price prediction will be rendered invalid with a weekly close below $14.40, something that can trigger a drop to the next closest support at $9.

APT Shows Strength Despite Market Downturn

The APT price has shown strength in the ongoing market correction. Coins that do so are often the first to increase once the market stabilizes. APT did the same in September 2023 and January 2024. If the pattern holds, APT will increase toward its all-time high once the Bitcoin price correction is complete.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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