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Analyzing Monero (XMR) Recent Decline: Why $420 Remains a Realistic Target

Published 16 October 2025
Victor Olanrewaju
Authors

Key Takeaways

  • XMR price declines 6%, but maintains bullish structural strength.
  • Megaphone pattern hints at volatility before a potential explosive move.
  • The daily chart shows a rising channel, confirming a sustained uptrend.

Monero’s (XMR) story has always been one of quiet strength amid volatility. Its latest price pullback fits the pattern: temporary turbulence before a potential recovery.

At press time, the XMR price is $316.77, representing a 6.26% decline over the past seven days.

Yet, despite the dip, several indicators suggest that a move above $400 remains attainable. Here is why.

Monero Megaphone Pattern Takes Shape

On the 4-hour chart, XMR’s price has formed a bullish divergence. This happened as the altcoin printed five consecutive red candlesticks.

However, at the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has risen to 0.20. This divergence between the price and CMF indicates that some market participants are buying the dip.

Hence, if sustained, this could drive XMR’s price higher in the short term. However, before that happens, XMR must clear a key resistance level.

As seen below, the red line of the Supertrend is positioned above the price. This suggests that the key resistance for XMR to clear is around $330.03.

Therefore, if buying pressure rises, XMR could break above its overhead resistance and push toward higher price zones.

In addition to this bullish outlook, CCN’s analysis shows that XMR has formed a megaphone pattern.

 Typically, this structure appears when prices swing between widening support and resistance levels, reflecting strong participation from both buyers and sellers.

XMR Monero price chart
XMR/USD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

If XMR’s price manages to hold support near the lower boundary while volume increases, the pattern could result in an explosive breakout to the upside.

XMR Price Analysis: Upswing Intact

Like the 4-hour setup, the daily chart for XMR reinforces a bullish outlook. The token trades within an ascending channel, a pattern that highlights a steady uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows.

Adding to the strength of this move, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains above the zero line, showing rising accumulation pressure.

At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) continues to print green histogram bars, confirming that bullish momentum is intact.

If this setup holds, XMR’s price could break above the key resistance at $335.55, opening the door to the next target around $372.61. The coin might even test $420 in an extended rally, marking its highest monthly level.

However, the bullish momentum could fade if trading volume weakens and buyers fail to hold their ground.

Monero XMR price analysis
XMR/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

In that case, XMR may retrace toward $283.48, with a deeper correction potentially driving the price to $251.27 before stabilizing.

Overall, XMR’s structure remains constructively bullish; however, sustained demand will be crucial to confirm a lasting breakout.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju

Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.

With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.

He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.

In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.

At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.

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