On Tuesday, November 14, Coinbase Global listed Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) futures, named SOL-PERP and AVAX-PERP. This move, responding to FTX’s recent collapse, reflects Coinbase’s aim to diversify revenue streams beyond spot trading and enhance regulatory compliance.
The futures launch, targeted at institutional clients outside the U.S., responds to the evolving crypto industry dynamics, providing regulated digital asset derivatives trading options. This shift aligns with Coinbase’s broader strategy to reduce dependence on spot trading revenue and navigate a more stringent regulatory landscape.
The price of AVAX was already on the rise since October 19, recovering by 123% by November 12. A slight pullback occurred in the next two days, but buyers returned from November 14, causing another 54% price spike.
With the price increase of 180% in total from its October low and reaching $24 today, can it continue to $30, or will we see a downturn shortly?
The price of AVAX was in a bear market from its all-time high of $152 on November 21, 2021. Measured to its lowest low of $8.70 on October 20, 2023, it depreciated by 94%.
As it slightly decreased below its significant horizontal support zone around $10, it picked up the needed liquidity for a major recovery it is currently in. We have seen a parabolic rise, signaling the start of a new bull cycle, as significant breakouts were made from both a descending resistance and a horizontal one at $15. But is the rise sustainable, with the RSI now signaling overextension as it sits at 80%?
In our previous analysis, we have been anticipating the start of the more extensive ABC correction to the downside, as our primary expectation was the completion of the uptrend at $19.50.
The price did find resistance there, but only a temporary stop was made before further uptrend continuation. These were most likely waves 3 and 4, with the last rise from November 14 being its final wave 5.
AVAX is currently 30% off from its $30 mark, but considering the increase previously seen and its parabolic nature, this target is in question on the current advancement. We will likely see the momentum stop and reverse sharply for its first bull market correction.
Measuring with the Fibonacci retracement tool, its typical 0.618 level matches the significant horizontal level around $15, our target for the expected correction. We could see a further rise to $30, but the more the price goes this way, the less sustainable it is, and it will come crashing down faster.
The $30 level is the previous macro high, and if we have seen the start of a bull cycle for AVAX, we could easily see the price surpassing it.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.