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Is Bitcoin Ready to Go Parabolic? Price Action Mirrors Pre-2020 Surge

Published August 21, 2023 3:35 PM
Nikola Lazic
Published August 21, 2023 3:35 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Credible Crypto pointed out the market fractals
  • However, fractals are not adequate per our analysis
  • Bitcoin is likely headed further down in the near-term

After reaching $31,400 the price of Bitcoin started moving sideways before making a sharp downturn of almost 20% in the recent market crash. Still, the price is up by 68% since November 21, and on a macro level, we are still in an uptrend. 

This type of sharp downturn was seen in late February to early March, and yet the price made a new high. Looking at the market structure and some fundamentals, many have maintained their bullish outlook. 

Among those is a crypto analysis, popular on Twitter, Credible Crypto , who took it to the platform to discuss his stance. According to him, the price structure is similar to that of March to August 2020, just right before Bitcoin took off to a new all-time high. 

In this analysis, we will cover this possibility and re-examine his analysis. 

CrediBULL Crypto Analysis 

In his Twitter post , Credible Crypto analyzed the market structure and pointed out the market fractality. First saying that both of these structures – from April to present, and from  March to August 2020 are sideways in essence. 

market fractuals btc

“Ranging structures occurring after a clean/clear impulse (uptrend) and near vertical rally off a major low- which makes me believe that the goal here is re-accumulation- and so technical context is the same,” Credible Crypto said in his Twitter post .

He interprets this as the accumulation range from which, if the price breakout, it will be poised for massive price spikes as we saw in 2020 when Bitcoin increased by 200% at first, to its $16,000 – $18,000 range, and then proceeded to make further advances. 

This scenario will get invalidated if the price of Bitcoin continues to move to the downside below $24.800. If this level gets broken, lower targets could be seen, and the fractal structure he is referring to would be broken as well. 

Bitcoin Price Analysis 

As we have pointed out in our previous analyses, there are two scenarios in play for the price of Bitcoin, but in both, we are expecting near-term downside movement. We have either seen the start of the bull cycle on November 21, when this increase began, or we have seen a corrective three-wave move from June 18 last year. In both cases, this upward movement ended in July. 

This is why we are either expecting a corrective ABC that will establish the first bull market higher low in the zone between $22,000 – $20,000, or a move for the final bear market low, potentially in the zone of $11,000. 

In Elliott Wave theory, market fractality is highly important, and examining the mentioned fractals according to the Credible Crypto, they are not the same. His referred sideways zones are not to be compared, primarily because of their context. In March 2020, we saw a large 50% decrease following a recovery of 170% to the same levels, which all occurred in a matter of 66 days and formed a V shape which is usually seen in the market bottoms. 

In contrast, the recent zone he pointed to be fractal with the mentioned one is after the rise of 100% and lasted for 145 days. This is more of a sign of struggle but also indecision, meaning that investors are slowly waiting to see a decisive move, but there isn’t anyone pushing the price. This is why we have seen a sharp decline, amplified but long liquidations. 

Conclusion 

As per our chart analysis, we will see further lows, below the invalidation point of $24,800 of the Credible Crypto scenario. His fractal comparison is inadequate, and the likelihood of the price of Bitcoin heading for a 200% surge is very small, although not impossible. 

Now that the price is in a freefall, it first needs to establish strong support in order to shoot back up. From the support level it reaches, we are going to reexamine this possibility, but for now, the chance is slim to none.

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

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