When Might We Expect Bitcoin Price to Bottom?

December 10, 2014 13:32 UTC

I think even any remaining sceptics can likely agree with what I have been saying on this page for the last week, i.e., that lower prices were coming before higher prices. Now I would like to try to answer the question of when the most likely time to reach the bottom might be.

To do that, I used a Fibonacci accordion to measure time ratios across a 5-hour chart. If any of you do not know what a Fibonacci accordion is, you owe it to yourself to do some research. It is a powerful tool to forecast likely high energy time frames in the future, as well as price support and resistance. IMHO it is far easier to forecast time than price. It may be easier in part simply because time can not go up or down. Many traders use Fibonacci ratios focused solely on price rather than time. I believe that is inefficient at best.

As you will see, there is considerable reason to suspect that the market gods have decided to give bitcoin traders a Christmas present. It appears there will be a very significant energetic time frame around the holidays. The window of interest stretches from 12/17-12/29. For reasons we can focus on in a future article, I am inclined to believe the median date, 12/22, is the time-frame to watch most carefully.

Chart 1

Here you can see that one end of the accordion, labeled “0” is anchored on the 2nd of the two highs of late last year.. The other end, labeled “1” is anchored on the October low. The “.5” and “.618” lines fall on significant turning points as well. This synchronicity gives us reason to believe that the 1.272 time-frame will be significant. It falls on Dec 26.

Chart 2

This accordion stretches from the April low until the Oct low. “.618” was also a significant time. The “1.414” ratio falls on Dec 17.

Chart 3

This accordion is used a bit differently. The 1st anchor “0” is on the April low. The “1” point is on a date in the future. We are looking for places where a few of the important Fibonacci ratios hit significant turning points. We find that when “1” is anchored on Dec 24, we get hits on several important ratios, as indicated on the chart. This suggests that Dec 24 is an energetic time.

Chart 4

Here the anchor point “0” is on the acceleration point of May and “1” is on the Oct low. There are numerous hits on turning points at Fibonacci ratios. The numerous hits suggest that the “1.272” date of 12/28 may be significant.

Chart 5

Finally, we have an accordion stretched from the June high to the October low. The “1.618” ratio falls on Dec 21. I believe this to be a most important date to watch.

The interesting thing is that all these forecasted energetic times fall within a very small time window. There are more charts with accordions pointing to this time frame I have not included here.  And they all incorporate a market dynamic that has been unfolding for a full year. I am highly confident that something significant will happen to the bitcoin price chart in 12/22 time-frame.  But what will it be? Of course, I may be mistaken.  But IMHO the bear market of 2014 will end quite soon – ~ Christmas. That means, if I am correct, that 2015 will be a fantastic year for bitcoin bulls. Time will tell, of course.

I have been looking at the market through a Gann Square Lens for the past two weeks.  My next few articles will look at the bitcoin market from an Elliott Wave perspective.

The price ratio page shows there are currently more buyers than sellers.

Happy Trading all! Comment below!

Images from Shutterstock.

Last modified: July 17, 2015 15:43 UTC

@jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.