Bitcoin trading has been tracing a price path of higher lows and lower highs for the past 4 months. The narrowing price action will eventually approach an apex. This report provides a forward view.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
We have been witnessing increasingly strange orderbooks and odd-lotter market behavior. Both buyers and sellers place buy orders below the rising trendline, but at the resistance ceiling the buyers lose conviction and the sellers regain dominance.
The approaching juncture will force the bulls to become active buyers in the market, or else witness price drop irretrievably below rising support. The sellers, equally, will have no choice but to capitulate, else they must change their outlook to bullish. Neither camp has achieved a new high or new low after 4 months.
Price is approaching the intersection of the two containing trendlines. Hence, we find price (and market psychology) at a juncture: the inability to advance above the resistance ceiling now comes face-to-face with the 4 month-long determination to advance.
As discussed in prior articles, there is prevalent negative social mood in the Bitcoin ecosystem. If the majority of market participants are negative, trading direction biases to the downside. Uncertainty clouds the integrity of Satoshi’s Gift. We’re becoming increasingly unsure about its future, once glorious and immutable. Now, Bitcoiners – users, businesses, enthusiasts, developers and investors (both big and small) – are waking up to the reality that factionalism could potentially put the blockchain at risk.
To the upside – the bullish outlook – most Bitcoiners do not perceive fragility in Bitcoin’s Rule of Consensus; and even to intelligent persons the concept of decentralization is vague and nebulous. Many, if not most, trust that everything will work out fine, and that consensus will lead the way. From this perspective, a rally is possible. Speculation has always chased commodity charts up and down; and hope of a glorious future cargo delivery (high capacity network, high price, high adoption) can fuel such a rally. Additionally, Bitcoin’s unique features and safe haven capacity makes it susceptible to fear-driven rallies in an uncertain global economy.
Advancing in a rally would be preferable, but social mood and fundamental insecurity weigh heavily in favor of an unpleasant decline.
Bitcoin trading is drawing price into a wedge pattern in the chart. How this pattern will resolve is up to fate. Prudent speculators should refrain from placing large bets before the market has taken direction. xbt.social will take the trade in the direction of the unfolding technical chart signals.
Barring a drop below $400 support in the coming days, we could see weeks of ranging price action until the larger price move manifests in the chart.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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