Bitcoin trading has brought price back up to the previous resistance ceiling near $330 and 2100 CNY. The chart is inconclusive and until we see the market take direction the sideways consolidation may continue.
Time of analysis: 12h15 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Continuing sideways consolidation – apparently around the diagonal grey trendline – prevents price from moving very far in either direction.
The grey diagonal, incidentally, is a Fib line that originates at the January 2015 low near 900 CNY in the BTCC chart. That price action is still being influence by this Fib line, 10 months later, is significant and we’ll keep an eye on the Fib line’s companions for potential upside and downside targets. However, at the moment, they are further from price than the more immediate 1hr and 4hr moving averages.
Judging by the chart, price could just continue pivoting around the grey Fib line. MACD continues compressing and the MAs are in ever-tighter compression. Later – a few weeks from now – the Fed rates announcement is a potential catalyst for strong movement in the bitcoin chart, and a more immediate influence may be the 1-day chart’s 20MA which has now taken a downturn under influence of the November decline.
Either this 1-day 20MA will come to price and disrupt the sideways equilibrium, or the market may trade toward the it, currently near 2270 CNY and $350 (Bitstamp). The latter option may not be enough to pull the 1-day 20MA out of its dive, but may negate a sell signal in the 4-hour chart.
The process may take a day or more and we have no specific indication or signal in the chart to trade by, so let’s see how this event plays out as price consolidation continues.
The most important rule of trading is to play good defense, not great offense. Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. I know where my stop risk points are going to be. I do that so I can define my maximum possible draw down. – Paul Tudor Jones
The expected Federal Reserve rates hike in December has most currencies weakening against the US dollar. With bitcoin not being systemically linked (or pegged) to the dollar and other global currencies, it trades free of this influence. However, bitcoin’s role as a commodity may soon see it react to the coming market shifts, as uncertainty increases and a new speculative cycle begins.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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