Bitcoin trading had price return to its 200-period moving average, yesterday, and today it fell away again. The return of Greece to the global economic stage on Sunday may see the important 200MA tested again.
Time of analysis: 15h38 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The stochastics (top) are dropping way from their upper extreme – after indicating divergence on the last high. RSI (second from top) has reverse divergeed to the upside on the last push above the 20MA while price did not make a higher high – a signal of downward continuation. We expect RSI to show strong divergence when price makes the final low for this initial small wave of decline.
A familiar world political event comes back into focus tomorrow, Sunday: Greece’s delayed party elections.
The event has both political and economic dimensions, in that the ruling Syriza party might have to (according to Greek parliamentary system rules) choose a coalition partner (or two) if they do not win the election with an outright majority vote.
Likely partners include the pro-Euro New Democracy party, but also potential popular candidates such as the anti-Euro Popular Unity party and the rightwing Golden Dawn party. (Economic hardship and negative social mood usually foment radicalism and nationalism.) The results of the election and Syriza’s choice of bed-fellows will have implications for continuing bailout payments and bank emergency funding from the ECB and its financial organs.
The jitters and heightened media chatter could see bitcoin move on the fear factor. Price could move higher on a “market negative” (anti-Euro, pro-independence) outcome and possibly remain unaffected or even decline on a “market positive” outcome (pro-European) as it would imply less uncertainty and continued bank liquidity funding, and therefore no implication of default or a potential flight to bitcoin.
The “flight to bitcoin” notion is, in reality, misapplied in this instance since we know that bitcoin adoption and usage is very low in Greece. The country’s only bitcoin ATM and exchange generate negligible volume. However, markets are fueled by rumor, myth and fear, so we have to consider these psychological factors and their sometimes irrational influence in the price chart.
Don’t play what’s there, play what’s not there. – Miles Davis
Our outlook remains that price is in a larger downtrend and that it will eventually drop over the edge into a large declining wave. The current expectation is that price makes an initial wave lower today, and then advances back toward the 200MA on the Greek election drama (as also happened on the day of the Fed rate hike announcement). The chart predicts a moderate coalition in Greece, upon which price will be free to decline in accordance with the larger downtrend and market-wide malaise. If a market positive (pro-Euro) outcome transpires in Greece and price remains (or returns to) below its 1-hour 200MA, that would be a favorable moment to open a sell position.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Last modified: September 22, 2015 23:14 UTC