Bitcoin price has recovered from sell-off lows at $434 and 2800 CNY today. Can the market bounce price through resistance and continue to new highs? Or has yesterday’s lack of commitment at a critical moment cut bitcoin’s price wings?
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Yesterday’s sell-off caught most bitcoin traders off-guard as the evident course of events was for price to consolidate into the Fed announcement and to then take direction based on the FOMC statement’s content with its major global economic impact. That the bitcoin market fell into a sell-off prior to the event seems strange, but talk about irrationality or manipulation does not help us better assess potential trade opportunities.
At the time of writing price has risen from a low near $434 (Bitstamp) to a recovery position in the mid-$440s. The extreme downside reverse divergence made by RSI has resulted in a strong push from the bottom that exudes advancing energy. Could price have bounced from the low to now use the momentum to break through $470 resistance and continue rallying?
Before we can entertain the bullish option traders would first want to see price advance above the 1-hour 200-period moving average (red). As an initial confirmation, at least.
As matters stand in the chart, price is trading below the 200MA and while it remains so, the risk of another declining wave remains. The severe wave down from the Bitstamp chart’s triple top seems incomplete – with only five thin waves correcting an advance that built over weeks and contains a series of several 5-wave pushes higher.
To the upside, should the market buy itself out of this quagmire, lies $470, $500 and $680. If decline continues, as seems inevitable in this chart, then the 1.618 Fib extension at $413 (Bitstamp) is next.
Bitcoin price bounced from the sell-off low and is trading midway between upside resistance at $470 and a local support floor near $413. The 1-hour stochastics (top, magenta circle) are still rising and MACD should make its formulaic return to zero (orange arrow). If price still remains below the 1-hour 200MA when these indicator life-lines run out, then another declining wave to $413 seems to be the market’s only option.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified (UTC): April 28, 2016 17:39