Bitcoin price looked to be curving into advance today, but analysis shows the move is spent and must first pull back if it is to continue higher. Meanwhile, crucial support could be tested in the coming hours and days.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The technical picture, earlier today [at xbt.social], suggested that price would make its way to the 4hr 200-period moving average (200MA, red) and this condition has now been fulfilled.
The stochastics (top panel) have reached their upper extreme, MACD (just above price) is touching its upper Bollinger Band, and RSI has reached an overhead trendline that mirrors the trendlines defining the channel that has constrained price for almost two weeks.
The upside resistance is decisive and the market will need to back price up if it wants to ramp a bullish price-buggy across the overlapping trendline and 4hr 200MA. The fact that each of four consecutive waves (magenta arrows) had formed a lower high reinforces the expectation that the small wave to the upside is spent.
On the way down there is an intersection of two trendlines – the long-term (Jan 2015) rising support, and the the local down-sloping channel. Price charts sometimes use such intersections as a gateway through tough support and resistance, but in this case we have to remember that the market has avoided trading below the long-term support for over a year. Perhaps today’s full moon could drive the bears to do the unspeakable…
Although unlikely, traders should be prepared to sell into any decline below that long-time support structure. Perhaps it’s a good time to draw it on your exchange chart and to keep a weary eye on the $400 level. A break below 14-month support could result in a volatile sell-off.
If price bounces from support and then heads back up, we want to look out for a break above the 4hr 200MA. Getting above this significant moving average would print a higher high and may provide sufficient impetus for an advance to the overhead resistance trendline near $440 (higher magenta circle)
Bitcoin price is printing its fifth consecutive lower high. Currently a pull-back may see price retest critical long-term support. Below said support lies coyote country – Wile E. Coyote country – so traders are kindly being advised to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of a sell-off below $400.
If support holds, the market may want to push price back to the higher end of its narrowing range near $440, and this move will be confirmed when price climbs above the 4hr chart’s 200-period moving average.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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Last modified: March 22, 2016 17:47 UTC