Bitcoin price has been slowly declining today and made a tentative spike toward support a few hours ago. Currently, price is above support but sellers keep piling in and with US traders joining the market soon, selling may intensify.
Time of analysis: 15h30 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Compression of the MAs at the 15min candle timeframe was followed by a move lower. The larger timeframes did not show this compression, so the current series of subwaves are seeking support lower in the chart.
A surge higher may result in the coming hours, or alternatively, price is only midway through a decline to support and more subwaves could develop to the downside.
Worst case scenario, this might be the beginning of a declining wave into a catastrophic sell-off below $200 and 1300 CNY. Such an outcome is unlikely but possible. We cannot issue a formal Trade Recommendation for this scenario because the downside dynamics are unknown: would price decline to $187, $160 or $90? How many waves would unfold? Would price spike and return to the upside within minutes? We just don’t know – it would be an extraordinary outcome that we cannot effectively plan for or safely trade.
For now, the outlook remains that price will find support at the floor near $220 and 1400 CNY. A return to the upside would then setup for a larger advance.
The selling will continue as long as the predominant mood in the bitcoin market remains negative.
Keep your stop loss safe and use it to minimize loss in case of unexpected downside.
I’m more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand. – Marty Schwartz
The support floor has been subjected to hammering selling during this year and has held throughout. This weekend could see another test. If support holds, the upside has clear skies for advance. If cynical selling breaches below $220 (Bitstamp) then several more levels around $215, $210 and psych level $200 may exhaust the short sellers.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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