Posted in: Archive
Published:
December 17, 2014 2:59 PM UTC

Bitcoin Price Low Getting Close

“It is always darkest before dawn.” Wise words indeed. For Bitcoin bulls and/or people on the outside looking in, it must be starting to look like Bitcoin is a very bad investment. But this selling is (at worst) almost finished.  Within days, the market will…

“It is always darkest before dawn.” Wise words indeed. For Bitcoin bulls and/or people on the outside looking in, it must be starting to look like Bitcoin is a very bad investment. But this selling is (at worst) almost finished.  Within days, the market will turn and start an advance that will cause traders to quickly forget the events of the past few weeks and months.

If you will recall, we noted in an earlier article that the time-frame between 12/17 – 12/29 was flagged as an energetic period, and the likely end of the bear market. For reasons not thoroughly spelled out here, I believed that the most likely date for the low is 12/22. However, it is now the 17th of December, and we have had an hourly close at ~$325. That is getting pretty darn close to our forecasted low of ~$316. And we are now in the forecasted time window for the bear to die.

On these pages a week and a half ago we advised aggressive traders to short the Bitcoin market. That trade made us $55/btc. It is time to take that money off the table. There may possibly be more money on the downside in the next day or two, but the big money has already been made. It is a good time to close the short and begin looking for a long entry.

Yesterday we looked at this chart, and noted that support would be found ~336 and then ~325. The red arrow highlighted the support we saw at 325. Today, we see that this is exactly where major support was found.  Price bounced at $326 as expected.

Looking closer, however, I see there is a setup that shows the price hitting the 3rd  arc pair. (See above and below.)

This is not trivial.  We are clearly reaching an area where significant support may be found.  On the other hand, if price penetrates the 3rd arc pair, it will indicate further weakness likely lies ahead.

[Note: After this article was written, price dropped below 326, removing any possibility that the three-minute chart referenced below was actually a 5 wave move up.  Perhaps it might be of benefit to some aspiring technical analysts out there to leave this section in just the same, so that my thought process can be seen.]

Per Elliott Wave, if wave five (bull market) has begun we should see well-structured waves of five have begun forming (for the first time since 11/2013). So, I zoomed into the five-minute charts because I wanted to get immediate feedback if there were well-structured 5 waves up from the $326 low forming.  The five-minute charts were inconclusive, so I looked at the three=minute charts. Look what I found:

There seem to be five waves up, but it is difficult to say with certainty that they are ‘well-structured’.   Three-minute charts are hardly conclusive – fifteen-minute charts would be far better. But it seems possible. Take heed and stay sharp! $326 may, perhaps, have marked the end we have been expecting for the past several weeks.  It is still too early for active traders to go long – the market has not confirmed it’s intention to go up. But be ready.

The price ratio page shows there are currently more sellers than buyers

Happy Trading all!

Disclaimer: Trading is risky. Past success is not a guarantee of future profits. CCN assumes no liability for any losses suffered as a result of this analysis.

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Last modified: January 25, 2020 10:08 PM UTC

Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.

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