So now we are at the start of another week, but Bitcoin value hasn’t really managed to extend the previous week’s powerful rally towards $8,512. As far as the long-term holdings are concerned, there is nothing much happening inside the market. In the last 24 hours itself, the BTC/USD pair continued to trend sideways within a relatively more extensive range (~$300-wide). But in a broader context, we still haven’t able to recover the 4% drop on the July’s high, as we wanted.
The change in sentiment could be blamed on the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulatory body last week shunned Winklevoss Twin’s ambitious Bitcoin ETF. It is true that the entire Bitcoin lobby was expecting a better outcome, owing to the event’s strong fundamentals for Bitcoin bulls. But it didn’t happen, and BTC/USD experienced a 6% drop as a knee-jerk reaction.
And now, when we head to another week, there is nothing much to carry forward from here. From technical indicators on a 4H BitFinex chart, the Bitcoin market is still very neutral. The BTC/USD pair is still way above its 100H and 200H SMA (depicted in blue and red respectively). Furthermore, the last week’s crossover in which the 100H SMA crossed above the 200H SMA is traditionally a bull-indicator.
However, the RSI and Stoch indicators are inside a neutral zone. And as we are strictly speaking about the intraday, the timeframe limits us from calling it a bullish sentiment.
Thus, a bias conflict indeed.
At first, the BTCUSD is currently limited by a strict range, defined by 8325-fiat as interim resistance and 7814-fiat as interim support. As the pair continues to trend sideways, it opens many critical intrarange opportunities. Thus, a bounce back from interim support offers a potential long opportunity towards the interim resistance, and a pullback from the interim resistance opens a similar short opportunity towards the interim support.
However, in case either of these levels gets invalidated due to strong upside/downside action, we will switch to our breakout strategy.
According to our breakout strategy, a break above 8325-fiat, our interim resistance level, will have us put a long position towards 8500, our medium-term upside target. As we enter this position, a stop loss near 8300-fiat will define our risk management perspective.
Conversely, a break below 7814-fiat, our interim support level, will open a decent short opportunity towards 7609-fiat, our next downside target that acted as crucial support to the rally towards 8512-fiat.
Featured image from Shutterstock. Charts from TradingView.
Last modified: July 30, 2018 16:08 UTC