Bitcoin price holds above support at the start of the last week of this year. Although the intra-day chart is ambiguous, the last three months of price action has set bitcoin price up for an exciting 2016.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Going into the last week of the year, the 1hr moving averages are not in clear alignment. Price is trading above a rising 4hr 200MA but in that timeframe the 20MA is descending sharply and will cross below the 200MA in the coming days – a bearish signal.
At the 1day timeframe price is trading below its 20MA but has found support at the 50% Fib retracement level of prior advance – just as it had done during the early-December correction.
Back to the 1hr timeframe chart (above) the primary indication is that price is reverse diverging to the previous RSI high. This reverse divergence should force price to retrace the current push higher which is perhaps too exuberant to be sustained.
Unfortunately, there is no technical reason why bitcoin price should not correct all the way to 62% retracement of the advance. The only barrier between the current level of price and the 62% retracement level at $380 (OKCoin 3Mth) is the psych level $400. Holding above the $400 level will be critical for a quick return to advance.
Bitcoin speculators and traders can look forward to a rally driven by the block-reward halving and greater adoption in 2016, yet, for now the chart is in transition. Any trade taken here is opportunistic and risky until we see a clear signal.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Last modified (UTC): December 28, 2015 19:05