Whether already underway or still to unfold, a wave “C” to the upside may target 1500 CNY / $242 – the location of the longer-term upside resistance level previously discussed in these articles. We take a close-up look at Bitcoin price action and its interaction with the momentum indicators.
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price is flat-lining through the gap between the 20MA and 200MA. At its current trajectory, the 20MA will inevitably cross above the 200MA, thereby, initiating a bullish mode in the chart. Yet, the indicators cannot tolerate much more upside – they’re already diverging to the price rise – hence, the conclusion is that the most likely option for price is to head down and avert the 20MA cross-over. Down – how far?
If decline unfolds any move below $235.90 will diverge RSI from the lowest indicator values on the chart, so this should be the low for the current wave.
Later in the day:
Price reversed at $235.92, as anticipated, because of a strong RSI divergence threatening at $235.90. The current move up looks to have some potential distance as a C wave, but price is not advancing with sufficient momentum. This leaves open the possibility that another drop lower may be due, now that the divergence has been activated and is being resolved via the upward reaction.
xbt.social discussion looks for the maximum low:
The standings shuffle around and one gets the impression that many of those in the leaderboard are holding short positions. Winner (whose name may turn out to be an apt and self-fulfilling prophecy) as well as Cliffe22 have switched to full cash positions – presumably awaiting clues about direction.
There has been strong and persistent selling at some exchanges during the past few days. Notably Bitstamp, Bitfinex and BTC-China. If price is being forced down by larger hands, then the target would, presumably, be far below $230. Upside continuation may thwart the attempt since repeated declining waves have not been able to dip below $235.00 and more recently $235.90 (Bitfinex). However, forced decline may be attempted, again, after the present move higher.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. – George Soros
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Last modified: July 12, 2015 19:17 UTC