Bitcoin Price Analysis: Exuberant Advance

Venzen Khaosan @venzen
February 10, 2016

Bitcoin price made a return to the previous wave high today and now looks to have resumed an advance. Or has it?

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

BTCC 5-Minute Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

The zoomed out BTCC 5min chart shows the articulation (subwaves) of today’s advance clearly. It’s an impulse wave and to be expected in this wave position. That it should be so strong comes as a surprise, but this same over-exuberance is what makes the wave vulnerable to deep retracement.

(Note to members: The OKCoin 3Mth chart, posted this morning, had halted advance at the Fib line, as projected, and price is now making a smaller upside wave back to the Fib line.) The preferred wave count remains, and favors a return to decline at the completion of the current upside wave.

Howver, the present wave may still have some gas left in its tank.

The magenta circle, top-left, shows where MACD had peaked on subwave iii of wave 3 of the previous advancing wave. Today’s wave has only just printed a MACD peak. It may only be midway through its advance, or it may reverse strongly on any subsequent high.

According to our method we could have traded today’s wave, its a qualifying wave C, but the buy signal developed in disjointed stages and now, in hindsight, its clear to see. The danger of sideways bitcoin waves is also that they tend to look like advance at the critical moments before decline returns with a vengeance.


A strong push higher today and many in the market seem to be buying like this is the blockreward-halving rally. If the outlook for additional decline is wrong, then advance beyond the 4hr 200MA will invalidate it. For now, it may look like a lost cause, but no indication in the charts invalidates the possibility of a strong reversal. Either way, prudent traders should resist the urge to go long at this late stage of today’s advance.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin price chart.

What do readers think? Please comment below.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.