Bitcoin price declined to the vicinity of its 1-hour 200MA, today, without making a direct challenge on it. Price revisits the 200MA periodically but, during September, has crisscrossed it several times. Combined with the choppy wave patterns evident in the chart we conclude that price is in a corrective phase and prefer to stay out of the market.
Time of analysis: 15h03 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The decline from yesterday’s top was rapid and the market failed to bounce off support and resume decline quickly. Instead, it hit the low and then began a slow correction. Today, the correction slid into decline and, as speculated yesterday, the market chose the 200MA as support for a soft landing.
At present levels we want to see a sideways consolidation forming a base as per the typical example just prior to this last wave of advance. Anything else could invalidate the notion that more advance is on the cards and suggest that the larger decline has already begun – a direct challenge on the 200MA, below, would suggest decline. We remain cautious, given recent changeability in the market, and a remaining upside target near $250.
A reminder of our game plan: we acknowledge this is a technical correction, so we prefer to stay out, except with the clearest signals. Currently, there are none.
As for the pattern in the chart, today, it appears to have run its course to near the 200MA (red). Now we wait to see if it consolidates for another leg up or if the new downtrend has started, in which case price will challenge the 200MA in a more determined way.
The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary. – Alexander Elder
Bitcoin price has returned to its 1-hour timeframe “home” at the 200-period moving average. From here it can either consolidate into another wave of advance to near $250 or continue decline to the support floor near $220 and lower. During the past month price has switched direction – seemingly randomly – and has failed to hit technical targets. We don’t know how long this will continue and await confirmation of direction as follows: to signal decline, price must break below the 1-hour 200MA and then $220. Advance should be preceded by a consolidation above the 200MA and/or impulsive five-wave pushes higher.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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This post was last modified on (Eastern Time): 03/10/2015 00:08