Bitcoin price slammed through several layers of support to hit a previous long-term resistance level at $465. Although the market seems to have found a bottom, there is not yet any technical reason to believe the decline is complete. Now is the time to count your money and sit out of the market for a few days or weeks.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC Wed 3 Aug
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The 4-hour and 1-day timeframe charts gave us MA sell signals, and the 3-day chart gave us MACD and stochastic bearish signals. During the overlap of the late US trading session and early Asia-Pacific sessions, bitcoin price was sold to the resistance-turned-support level at $465 (Bitstamp).
Although the primary target posted at xbt.social (and here) was $580, the previous CCN analysis post did concede that “Some analysts are calling for decline to structural support (meaning the previous harmonic pivot) at $450 and, from a technical perspective, nothing precludes this from happening.”
During the past few days, many alleged reasons for the decline have been cited in the media and social forums: secret meetings, hard-fork insecurity, Yuan devaluation and, on Wednesday, the Bitfinex hack. The linked article is a good factual read.
All these factors may have an influence, yet, this analyst’s position remains that external and fundamental events do not determine the direction of price movement – the movement is generated by active buyers and sellers in the market, and the direction of movement is determined by their pervasive social mood. It was posted here, two weeks ago, that the long-term charts indicate a looming downtrend. Many readers were irked by the analysis, yet, in the meantime, market participants found various catalysts and “good reasons” to sell. The majority’s impulse to sell (or buy) is based on their collective psychology – social mood – whether positive or negative (as in this case).
The resistance ceiling (blue arrow) of early 2016 has been tested for support. Additionally, price has made contact with its 1-day 200MA (red) – something it seeks to do, apparently, by the law of reversion to the mean.
Will there be more downside? We cannot know for sure. Currently, there are no explicit reversal signals to suggest that a bottom is in. However, we do see that a significant support level ($465) has bounced price higher, and that price is, at the time of writing, being traded back toward $600.
At xbt.social, we’ll trade the next confirmed signal we identify – whether to the upside or down.
Bitcoin price was sold to $465 (Bitstamp) from where it has bounced. There is not yet any clear signal that decline is over, but the market tends to engage in price correction for at least several days following a significant price move. We await confirmation of the next large price wave and its direction.
Bitstamp order book depth will be shown henceforth – following the theft of 119,756 BTC from a multisig wallet belonging to Bitfinex, and containing client funds.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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