Bitcoin price confidently pushed into the resistance zone below $470 yesterday, only to fall short and sell-off, today. Today’s analysis identifies potential technical support in the chart.
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Price has sold off from yesterday’s push higher into the resistance zone.
The sharp decline is characteristic of the chart’s behaviour in recent months, in that the downward waves unfold quickly to support. The question we now ask is “How deep will the declining wave be?“.
Potential support levels are annotated to the right of several chart features to the downside. Price levels are derived from the Bitstamp chart.
1) The nearest support level is the 200-period moving average (red) at $440.
2) At $425 there is an intersection of a recently prominent supporting trendline (thin blue), as well as the longer-term supporting Fib line that originates at the January 2015 low.
3) If the current decline is a partner C-wave to the previous declining wave (from $470), then a 1.618 Fib extension may represent its eventual target at $413.
4) If the decline is a large degree decline, then we may see $400 (orange “psych” level) or even $370. These are not yet primary targets.
Some traders may be wondering if the decline, as printed at $450 in the chart, is not perhaps already over, and if this could be a prime moment to buy. It may be the case, but trying to call a bottom is often compared to the task of catching a falling knife: it is always most prudent to wait for confirmation that price has returned to advance. One such confirmatory tool is the xbt.social stochastics indicator (top panel). A review of its behavior shows that decline rarely terminates before both the fast and slow stochastics have grouped at their indicator minimum.
Bitcoin price has succumbed to a sell-off from the resistance zone. The extent of decline is not yet clear, but based on the momentum indicators, we can be fairly confident that it is not yet complete. Several potential targets are outlined in the analysis above. Analysis, during the rest of this week, will assess the potential degree of the declining trend: will it be only a short-term correction, or possibly continue for longer?
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.
Last modified: May 10, 2016 17:00 UTC