Bitcoin price is trending higher and the bulls may have found their nads. It’s a speculative certainty that they will eventually break through resistance and strike out for $500, but will it be this time?
Time of analysis: 13h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
Tempting as the past two days’ upward curving price wave looks, now would be the wrong time to go long.
Price is reaching its 4hr 200MA in some exchanges and both the 4hr and 1hr chart show RSI reverse divergence. Note in the BTCC chart, above, how the 4hr 200MA (red) was abandoned with glee on Monday.
The upward surge may continue, but the indications are that at least a correction is due – if not full-blown reversal back into decline.
The BTC/CNY exchanges have surged strongly to the upside and are trading at the lower boundary of the resistance ceiling near 3000CNY. If we see the CNY charts push above resistance that will be an initial sign that advance will continue higher. However, the desperation of the repeated failed attempts at advance, is in itself a bearish signal.
Some might argue that the past 6 months’ price action is advance by stealth, and that price will suddenly break above resistance and just keep galloping. This is within the realm of possibility, but the primary indications that argue for imminent breakdown of this exhausted sideways show are: waning volume (purple arrow) since late-2015, failure to make even one new high, and the location in time of the reward halving which is still two months away, in the uncertain future.
Bitcoin price pushes higher and we could speculate that this is The One. We’ll believe it when we see it and then trade it. $470 is the level to conquer.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.
Last modified (UTC): May 25, 2016 17:53