Bitcoin price has been holding above the 1-hour 200MA in some charts, and crisscrossing it in others. Common to all exchange charts is the support zone around $240 and 1500CNY. The market may trade price into advance or it may choose the low road. We look for the critical levels to trade from.
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Bitcoin Price Analysis
Time of analysis: 17h00 UTC
Bitstamp 1-Hour Chart
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, at 04h00 UTC today:
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Price is unfolding in a pattern that matches the B wave anticipated in weekend analysis. The B wave now seems to be completing a subwave “c” to the upside. Addtional waves “d” and “e” may unfold, thereby drawing trade sideways into a MA sell signal. Or wave “c” may push higher toward the green Fib line directly above $248.
The prospect of additional decline is still alive, and breaking below $240 and 1490CNY will confirm a downside wave and activate our Trade Recommendation.
Recognizing that we are only dealing with probabilities, and not certainties, there is also the probability that the market becomes satisfied with the test of $240 and decides to trade price higher. On that outcome there is massive resistance at $256 and 1590CNY – the level of the descending daily 200MA.
Analysis at 16h00 UTC
The current wave is noodling out an advancing path that made a high, earlier, at $248. The advancing price wave still fits the wave count that can see price turn back down in stronger decline. However, the fact that price is consistently making higher highs and higher lows is noted. There is no reason to become attached to the prospect of decline and if there is a definitive buy signal we switch outlook and adjust to the market reality.
There is no immediate signal and, therefore, no immediate action. The 1-day 200MA has, since the weekend, declined from $258 to $256 in the Bitfinex and Bitstamp charts. Any price action above that level is strongly bullish, but until we see that in the chart, we remain on the sidelines.
Even though many things can happen, only one will. – Howard Marks
CoinCompetition
The winner of last week’s CoinCompetition is kaymuddin, who wins 1 bitcoin and membership at xbt.social . imas, the runner-up with a respectable 104% profit, wins 0.25 BTC for his dream holiday (at the next market top) and also joins us at xbt.social for collaborative analysis and trade spotting.
Those traders who positioned long at the open of today’s round are currently leading the field. Given last week’s unexpected advance, it may turn out that they can just hold position and ride a rocket to the moon. If there is more decline on the cards, they had better choose their moment well to reverse positions.
Good Luck to all in this week’s round of CoinCompetition.
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Summary
The market is in between two critical levels: above $256 there is open skies to at least $300 and below $240 awaits downside that may see the final wave of decline for this transition period. Prudent traders should be patient for the market to show its intention above or below these levels and then go with the trend.
Readers are referred to a new Global Economic Outlook report that will be published every Monday and looks at news and events in the global economic calendar.
Bitfinex orderbook depth and Buy/Sell Volume:
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Readers can follow Bitcoin price analysis updates every day on CCN. A Global Economic Outlook report is published every Monday.
Disclaimer
The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.
Bitcoin price charts from TradingView. Image from Shutterstock.
