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Woo’s Law: Bitcoin Users Double Every 12 Months; Major Factor For Long-Term Price Surge?

Last Updated March 4, 2021 5:00 PM
Joseph Young
Last Updated March 4, 2021 5:00 PM

Willy Woo , a highly regarded Bitcoin and cryptocurrency researcher, recently revealed that the number of Bitcoin users approximately doubles every 12 months.

Utilizing Google Trends as one of the main indicators of Bitcoin user growth, Woo formed the following infographic to demonstrate the exponential growth rate of the Bitcoin userbase.

More importantly, Woo emphasized that through a steady growth rate and periodic peaks which usually depend on the price trend of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin network will continue to demonstrate a consistent increase in user base in the long run.

“What we have here is a steady exponential growth baseline with periodic peaks. These peaks are are inline with price bubbles where more users start checking the price of their precious coins. Taking readings from the baseline results in an order of magnitude growth every 3.375 years. Or expressed in terms of time to double the user base it’s approximately 12 months,” wrote Woo, in an analytical blog post entitled “Bitcoin users double every 12 months. 

User Base: Major Factor For Long-Term Price Surge of Bitcoin

In May, CCN.com reported that Trace Mayer, a long-time Bitcoin investor and analyst, listed Bitcoin transactions, price, hashrate, wallets, trading volumes, and volatility as the six main long-term indicators of Bitcoin growth.

The Bitcoin price is a practical indicator of Bitcoin’s real-world value, relative to other assets and currencies. While many factors affect the Bitcoin price in varying periods, user base, developer activity, and global adoption have been the three key factors behind the long-term increase in the price of Bitcoin for the past eight years.

As an increasing number of users start to use Bitcoin, the demand for the cryptocurrency and speculation around the cryptocurrency market will further rise at a rapid rate. Woo noted in his report that 26 years from now, if the user base of Bitcoin continues to grow at this pace, nearly everyone in the world will use Bitcoin.

“If I was to assume Bitcoin’s adoption curve will be a symmetric S-curve, we’ll reach 50% adoption in 9 more years, however to complete the last half of the S will take 17 more years – 26 years from today. This is roughly one human generation from today. Children today by the time they reach adulthood, will transact in a world where everyone uses Bitcoin,” Woo explained.

The Market Cap of Bitcoin: $100 Billion

Recently, the market cap of Bitcoin surpassed that of Goldman Sachs at $95 billion. It is moving closer to the $100 billion mark, which would be a major milestone for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector.

But, the comparison of market caps between investment banks like Goldman Sachs and financial networks such as Bitcoin was not structured to compete with existing banks and financial systems. Bitcoin was introduced to operate as its own economy, store of value, and digital currency, competing against assets like gold and reserve currencies such as the US dollar.

In the long run, if the adoption rate of Bitcoin in major regions such as the US, Japan and South Korea can be sustained, the market cap of Bitcoin would likely surpass that of JPMorgan, the largest retail bank in the world valued at $350 billion, and achieve the trillion dollar mark. Experts in the sector including billionaire investors Tim Draper and John McAfee have reaffirmed their long-term price targets of Bitcoin at above $200,000.

Featured image from Shutterstock.