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Why Some Bulls Expect Bitcoin to Fall Below $5,000 Prior to Big Rally

Last Updated March 4, 2021 3:34 PM
Joseph Young
Last Updated March 4, 2021 3:34 PM

Today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has reaffirmed his $30,000 Bitcoin price target by December. But, other permabulls are not as optimistic as Lee about the short-term trend of Bitcoin.

In May, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that he would like to see the BTC price fall to the $5,000 region before recovering and initiating a 2017-esqe rally to ensure that the market does not expose itself to the creation of a minor bubble.

This week, ShapeShift CEO Erik Voorhees and cryptocurrency investor Anthony Pompliano, better known as Pomp, echoed the sentiment of Hayes, stating that the bear market of Bitcoin is not over just yet.

$5,000 Before $10,000

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Bitfinex

On CNBC Crypto Trader, hosted by Ran Neuner, Voorhees, the founder and CEO of major digital asset trading platform ShapeShift, said :

“I don’t expect it (bear market) to end soon, although I do think that the rate of collapse has slowed considerably. Generally in these bubbles, after you go through several months of a downtrend you hang out in a range for a while… But I think we are done with a majority of the collapse.”

Voorhees offered a relatively enthusiastic viewpoint on the trend of the crypto market, noting that while the bear market of Bitcoin has evidently not ended, the worst part of the correction has slowed down.

Last week, researchers at Diar reported that the rate of Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to a 14-month low, as BTC  demonstrated stability in the mid-$6,000 range since August 6, for around three weeks.

As seen in previous 80 percent corrections and rallies in 2012, 2014, and 2017, Bitcoin has traditionally required a period of stability before initiating a large rally on the upside.

Hence, the BTC price demonstrating stability in the range of $6,300 to $6,700 over the past three weeks is positive, but the dominant cryptocurrency will need to show months of stability before establishing a strong foundation to support its next big rally.

However, Pomp has not been as optimistic as Voorhees and Hayes, as he wrote in his latest newsletter that he sees the price of BTC falling to the $3,000 region before recovering to the $10,000 resistance level.

“The final data outputs left me with a few uncomfortable conclusions. The most notable one is that we are likely to see Bitcoin near $3,000 before we see Bitcoin at $10,000 again. If this is true, that means we still have ~50 percent price decrease to go. Things may get really, really ugly if this happens,” Pomp noted .

What Happens to Bitcoin in December?

Some analysts see Bitcoin falling to $5,000, $4,000, and even $3,000 before recovering. But, most of the analysts share the sentiment that Bitcoin will rebound to major resistance levels in the $10,000 to $15,000 range by the end of December.

Predictions of most experts and analysts in the cryptocurrency space change on a regular basis, as it is difficult to speculate the exact region BTC will fall to and recover from. It is important for investors to look at the mid-term trend of Bitcoin, analyzing actual metrics like volume and market demand to foresee the future trend of Bitcoin.

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