Ethereum Could be Headed for a Selloff

Journalist:
October 28, 2016

Those of you who read yesterday’s column will recall that the daily chart was looking rather bearish in the short term. Indeed, I ended the article by speculating that I was considering taking a short position in the asset as a result of the chart. So, even though the market has been rather quiet today, let’s look at the ethereum charts again.  Let’s start with the daily chart, with a look at the most reasonable bear setup from the high:

The first thing you should notice is that the price fell sharply as soon as it exited the first arc pair.  This is bearish to say the least.  If the chart does not find support at the top of the square it will likely go to the 2nd arc pair, as indicated by the arrow.  No doubt you will notice that this suggests a fall to the area seen at the August low. Elliot Wave traders will recognize this as a possible A-B-C correction, with the C wave just beginning to gather steam.

Remembering that the market is fractal, lets look at the daily chart again, this time with a smaller bear setup from the mid-July high.  Here we see price traversing the 3rd arc pair, below the 1st square, which is now resistance.  This is also bearish, and suggests the selloff could resume in a day or two, once pricetime exits the arc pair.

The 4-hour chart below shows a similar picture.  It shows pricetime about to exit the 4th arc pair, with a projected fall to the 5th arc pair.

These charts all suggest a short position might be profitable.  However, I found one bear setup which was decidedly less bearish. Look at this one:

This setup from the bounce high shows price currently above support at the top of the 1st square.  If one projects price hitting 5th arc support while staying above that support, it will meet the arc on….   NOV 8.  For some reason, that date sounds VERY familiar…  Oh yes, that is election day in America….

Speaking for myself then, the conclusion I draw is that I will wait to see a close BELOW support on this last setup (~ $11.22). If and when I see that support break, I will short this chart…

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Image from Shutterstock.

Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.