In the past few days, we have focused on the long term chart of Bitcoin. We have a reasonable degree of confidence that the long-term trend remains up, so we want to keep an eye out for opportunities to go long, rather than short.
From today we will look at the daily chart to get a sense of what might happen in the “trade-able” future. Below is a daily chart, with a bull setup that is rather compelling.
Note that the setup is centered upon the low of 8/2015 and the high of 11/2015. This is a relatively long time-frame for a daily chart setup. Indeed, it seems too long. But the setup seems to be the best setup. The rise of that 3 month period was almost unstoppable. (This setup is very bullish by the way. The 5th arc resistance is in the $1,000+ range.)
To test whether or not the market respects the setup, we can note that price took off after it entered the 2nd arc pair. Also, the market reversed at the end of both the 1st and the 2nd squares. So, there is compelling reason to believe the market respects the setup.
Having said that, bitcoin price (as of this writing) has entered the 3rd arc pair and has risen sharply again.
You will note that we are almost at the dotted red line. This is indicating that the earth has rotated 120 degrees since the June high. This is an “esoteric” time indicator. I know many people will have a hard time believing something as innocuous as degrees of earth rotation is meaningful as a trade-able indicator. But Gann surely believed it, and so do I. It is possible (though doubtful) that this will be a time of significant reversal. Be alert to that possibility. However it is more likely, IMHO, that yesterday’s jump in price represents the initial effects of 120 degrees having passed since the high. So, I am cautiously looking for the start of an acceleration to the upside.
By the way, want to see something a bit shocking? Look at this bear setup on the daily chart set from the high in 11/2013 (green arrow), and the top of the rally in Jan 2014 (pink arrow). Note that the bottom of the bear market in Jan 2015 (blue arrow) was almost exactly at the bottom of the 5th square in price AND the end of the 5th square in time!! Further, note the earth had rotated almost exactly 360 degrees from the January high until the bear market ended. Amazing, right?
Disclaimer: Remember, the author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
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