For the first time since September 8, the Bitcoin price has surpassed $4,620, fully recovering from the Chinese government’s ban on local cryptocurrency exchanges.
In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable in the $4,600 region, briefly dipping below $4,580 and rebounding beyond the $4,610 margin. With daily trading volumes in major regions including Japan, the US, and South Korea on the rise, and short-term momentum indicators including moving average convergence divergence (MACD) demonstrating a strong rally ahead, prominent analysts and investors including Tuur Demeester have expressed their confidence in the ability of Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum in the upcoming weeks.
Japan and South Korea at the Center of Global Bitcoin Trading
Over the past few weeks, investors such as Demeester have continuously analyzed the price of Bitcoin and its short-term trend with the Bitcoin-to-Korean won (KRW) pair because it has become a major Bitcoin exchange market along with Japan. The two Bitcoin exchange markets currently account for nearly 70 percent of global Bitcoin trades.
More importantly, professional, large-scale, institutional, and retail investors have started to enter the cryptocurrency exchange market in Japan and South Korea, due to the friendly and practical regulatory frameworks established by both governments. Recently, the Japanese government officially authorized 11 Bitcoin exchanges including BitFlyer, the nation’s largest cryptocurrency trading platform with over 800,000 active users.
If the Japanese and South Korean Bitcoin markets continue to demonstrate strong momentum in the upcoming weeks, the short and mid-term price trend of Bitcoin should aim toward the interim target of $6,000 established by prominent analysts and investors in the cryptocurrency sector including Max Keiser of RT and Demeester.
Does the Upward Momentum of Bitcoin Signal Low Probability of SegWit2x Hard Fork in November?
At this stage, it is highly likely that the hard fork of SegWit2x will execute in November and lead to the emergence of a new Bitcoin fork called B2X. Leading exchanges including Bitfinex have already clarified their stance on the moniker that will be used to refer to the SegWit2x coin and according to the Bitfinex development team, the company will pursue with the moniker “B2X” for SegWit2x coin after its fork.
But, as Bitcoin investor at the Atlanta Digital Currency Fund Alistair Milne explained in his blog post, the likelihood of SegWit2x replacing or overtaking the legacy chain in the original Bitcoin blockchain is practically non-existent, because of a wide range of factors including opportunity costs for miners, rejection of the fork by users, and the network effect of Bitcoin.
Specifically, Milne stated that even if SegWit2x debuts with more hash power than Bitcoin, if users and investors, who justify the value of public blockchain networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, choose to stay in the legacy chain, miners will not mine SegWit2x or B2X for less profitability.
“Miners follow the money, they do not lead the money. This has never been illustrated more clearly than by Bcash and the joke that is their difficulty adjustment algo. A rational miner fears the market negatively valuing the tokens they are trying to mine. They are extremely sensitive to profit & loss (no matter how rich they pretend to be),” wrote Milne.