Bitcoin at Pivotal Resistance Area

December 21, 2016

Readers of this column may remember that in my last update 2 days ago I pointed out that resistance on multiple timeframes was approaching.  On the daily chart, we are now just ~ $10 away from 5th arc resistance. See below:

As you can see, the blue arrows attest to the fact that pricetime reacted virtually every time an arc was touched from the start of the rally last May.  Will the 5th arc be different?  I doubt that very much, though the market will be the judge in the end, not me.  In any case, we are going to find out quite soon.

Readers will know that I advised opening long positions at $730 a couple weeks back, and that I advised that I was closing my longs at $790 two days ago.  At almost $810 presently, I am sure there are some who question my decision to close my long position 2 day ago.  It is a fair observation.

The truth I that I am a bit conflicted.  On the one hand, I see plenty of reasons to believe this market wants to go up much further.  On the other hand, I see that 5th arc dead ahead, which I look upon as a great big danger sign flashing.

As I have pointed out in the recent past, I am reminded of the thrilling rally in late 2013.  It was similar situation.  The market had been clawing its way higher for weeks.  Finally, the 5th arc was reached and I yelled out a warning to all my friends and colleagues to close their longs.  Then, pricetime worked its way through the 5th arc pair.  As soon as it had cleared the pair, the rally exploded higher and kept going until it went from ~$250 all the way to $1200.

I am acutely aware that history may repeat itself.   I have closed my long positions, but am ready to re-open them if that 5th arc pair is broken.

BY THE WAY, I have highlighted in yellow an example of a Tradingview error.  Note that the chart price scale is HOSED.  If anyone from Tradingview is reading this, PLEASE FIX YOUR SCALE.

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Last modified (UTC): December 21, 2016 19:11

Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.