Bitcoin Needs to Be Watched Closely Now

Journalist:
Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276
February 18, 2017

Bitcoin continues to show strength as it is relentlessly advancing through each and every resistance it encounters.  I find myself in a quandary.  It is becoming increasingly clear that the macro vision I had in the past few weeks, of Bitcoin testing it’s recent lows, and from there beginning a stunning advance to ridiculous new highs, was wrong.  I am starting to grasp that it is more likely that the recent lows will not be tested.

The daily chart has broken through the 2nd arc. Barring a stunning reversal before tomorrow morning, the daily chart will give a clear buy signal tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the 4 hour chart has closed above resistance, again.  It has even poked it’s head above a novice resistance line drawn from the last 2 swing highs.

There is a 5th arc at ~ $1100  on the 4 hour chart, which could be a stopper, but that resistance is not readily apparent on the daily chart.  My reticence to be a short-term bull is starting to feel like I am being victimized by preconceptions not endorsed by recent chart signals.

So, I am looking anew at the charts.  As I have stated in the past, 2/19-2/21 is an energy point in time for bitcoin.  As I have stated, I had thought a low would be seen in that time frame.  Recently, it seemed more likely there would be a top in that time frame.  Well, 2/19 is tomorrow.  I see little compelling reason to think that a top will be reached tomorrow or the next day on the daily chart. There, the strong resistance is seen ~ $1200. (If $1200 is reached by 2/21, it will likely be a top.)

The weekly chart is showing a warning however:

As you can see, the last advance was stopped by the 2nd arc of the 3rd pair.  Pricetime will hit that same arc again at ~ $1074.  I suspect price will get through it this time.   We will see…

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.