As mused in the most recent column, it seems that the 2/20/17 timeframe was, in fact, an acceleration. A couple hours ago Bitcoin jumped close to $40 per coin. It hit resistance at 1093, which of course made me wonder if $1100 might be a swing high. However, I note that the weekly bar, now only a single day old, has punctured the 3rd arc pair of a bull setup from the Aug 2015 low. Of course, there are still 6 days to go before the candle closes, so this does not qualify as a buy signal on the weekly chart. But still, it is rather bullish…
The daily chart has closed above the 4th arc pair on a bull setup from the same Aug low. This is a buy signal on the daily chart. Stops might be placed just below the arc, which should hold, if the breakout is to continue.
The 4-hour chart shows that price closed just above the “0 line” of a long-term pitchfork. It is testing that line for support as these words are being typed. My guess is that support will hold, given the bullish pictures on the longer-term charts seen above. All in all, it seems that resistance has been broken on most, if not all, timeframes. Again.
For a purely theoretical conjecture, I want to relate a recent experience. A man I don’t know well, but respect, recently forecasted a $2300 bitcoin high later this year, in the October timeframe. This is quite a bit higher than any of my setups forecast. Not even my weekly setup gets that high. So, while my initial reaction was to dismiss the forecast, my respect for his thoughts led me to look at my charts and see if there are any larger setups that would support that price ~ October 2017. To my pleasant surprise, there was one – two that I found, actually. Indeed, when looking closely at one of these setups, pricetime has been respecting the setup so far. So, while I am not saying he is correct, I am saying: “it is possible” :)
We will see…
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
Last modified: March 4, 2021 4:54 PM