Bitcoin and Ethereum: Two Coins With One Contrasting Week

Journalist:
Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276
October 29, 2016

Bitcoin

As we look back on the week Bitcoin was clearly a win. Up from ~ $630 to $710 since this time last week.  Ethereum on the other hand, was a loser, down from ~ $13 to ~ $10.75.  Happily, our readers were on the right side of these trades for the last week.

Having a good week is cause for celebration, but there is always next week to consider.  Is it time to take profits on our positions?  Let’s start by looking at bitcoin’s daily chart.

As you can see the latest advance began after pricetime cleared the 3rd arc [pair.  It went almost straight up until it hit the 1×2 Gann angle, where it has now stalled.  If price can get past the 1×2, as I suspect, it will likely find the next serious resistance at the top of the square, which is ~ $900.

But, cautious traders will note that price is at resistance and we are almost at the end of the 3rd square in time, which could herald a reversal.  What to do?  Taking profits here and re-entering when and if price closes above the 1×2 angle is a safe move, but is it too cautious?  That is ultimately a judgment call and speaks directly to how aggressive the trader is.  But let’s try to get more information from a different setup before we decide.

Here again on a wholly different setup we see pricetime at a significant resistance – the 4th arc pair.  As I have stated here before, 4th arc pairs do not typically stop strong moves, they often just slow them down with a small pullback.  So my guess is that price will get past this arc and continue on to the 5th arc, which is ~ $850.  Interesting, the top of the 4th square on this setup is almost the same place as the resistance we see on the 1st chart above.  Right around $900.

So, what is the best move here for bitcoin traders?  That is entirely dependent upon how aggressive the trader is.  Personally, I am quite happy with the $80/coin I made this week and will take money off the table here.  My intent is to buy those coins back again when/if price gets above the resistance we see on both the charts.  This is “safer”, but the downside is that it will mean missing a few points on the upside if price pushes right through this resistance while I am asleep.  Trader’s opinions will differ on this point.  That’s quite ok…

Ethereum

I want to take a quick look at ethereum tonight also, because it is clearly breaking down as we suggested it might.  Yesterday I suggested shorting the coin if it broke below S11.22, as it has.  Here is the daily chart:

Price is currently $10.77.  There is support at the top of the square at $10.08.  However, if that support breaks, as I suspect it likely will, there is pretty good chance that there will be a steep drop – perhaps to below $6.00.  Clearly, imho, there is a trading opportunity here on the short side.

Many traders seem to like trading the ethxbt pair.  While I normally do not like trading that pair, in this case I feel a bit differently, because the two coins seem to want to head in different directions.  So, there is a possibility that the gains from trading ethxbt might be substantial.  Normally, I hesitate to trade that pair because you need to be right about 2 different charts to do well.  As experienced traders know, it’s often difficult enough to be right about just one!

Happy trading!

Remember:  The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement.  Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.

Image from Shutterstock.

Jim Fredrickson @jimfred1276

Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has been trading commodities, forex and bitcoin since 1993. You may email him directly at: jimfred1276 at gmail dot com. Feel free to follow him on twitter.