Alex Krüger, a well-recognized cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst, has said Bakkt will lead the recovery of Bitcoin throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019.
But, Krüger explained that the rejection of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing of VanEck, SolidX, and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) will lead to the crash of Bitcoin, possibly back down to the $6,000 support level and in worst case scenario, to the $4,000 region.
“Possible outlook for BTC: First, bull run on BAAKT & renewed ETF approval narrative early 2019. Second, ETF denied Feb/27, massive crash, goodbye 6k, hello 4k, cleanse all weak hands Lastly, halvening 2020 narrative and re-adjustments lead to sustained bull run for the rest of 2019 & 2020.”
Optimism Towards Bakkt and Faith of the VanEck-SolidX ETF
Bakkt, a strictly regulated cryptocurrency trading platform developed by ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is currently in the process of establishing an ecosystem that enables both retail traders and institutional investors to invest in the cryptocurrency market with sufficient investor protection and through products that are compliant with local regulations in the US.
In December, Bakkt is expected to launch a cryptocurrency futures market, further increasing the liquidity of Bitcoin. Previously, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected nine Bitcoin ETFs on the premise that the Bitcoin futures market is not of sufficient size to handle an ETF.
The entrance of Bakkt into the cryptocurrency exchange market, the involvement of Bitcoin futures market operator CBOE in the VanEck ETF, and the track record of VanEck in filing over 200 successful ETFs with the SEC have led to an increase in anticipation towards the VanEck-SolidX ETF.
Throughout the next two to three months, technical analyst Alex Krüger emphasized that renewed enthusiasm towards the market initiated by Bakkt and the VanEck ETF will allow the price of Bitcoin to climb back to major resistance levels.
Since August, Bitcoin has failed to breakout of the $6,000 region due to its low daily trading volume and relatively low trading activity in the global cryptocurrency exchange market.
Hence, as of now, the market needs a major catalyst to engage a proper short-term rally and upside movement, and the two financial institutions could be a major factor that may trigger the price of Bitcoin to increase.
However, speaking to CCN, Krüger firmly stated that the probability of the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF being approved remains extremely low given the concerns of the SEC towards the state of the cryptocurrency exchange market.
If Bakkt can begin to demonstrate a level of volume that comfortably trump the volume of cryptocurrency exchanges that offer derivatives or margin trading such as Bitmex and Bitfinex, the SEC could consider approving an ETF. The issue with that is, the probability of Bakkt surpassing the volume of existing cryptocurrency exchanges within a two-month span is fairly low.
Is it Possible ETF Rejection Doesn’t Hurt Bitcoin Price?
The launch of Bakkt, the introduction of Goldman Sachs Bitcoin futures trading platform, and the release of Fidelity Digital Assets have not had any impact on the price of the dominant cryptocurrency in the past few months.
The possibility that the rejection of the ETF does not hugely affect the price of BTC still exists. But, that depends on the narrative that is set by investors and the media in the upcoming months and the anticipation towards the ETF.
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